NL West Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers had a very successful season in 2013 – which came as no surprise, seeing that they had the second highest team payroll. Their pitching staff was dominant, posting the lowest ERA as a rotation in the league. Clayton Kershaw was at the front of the rotation again, recording an ERA of 1.63, which was by far the lowest ERA in the league among qualified pitchers. They added veteran pitcher Dan Haren this offseason, who is coming off of a disappointing season. Although his velocity is not what it used to be, he is signed for a relatively inexpensive contract, and can be an innings-eater at the least. On the offensive side, center fielder Matt Kemp is coming off of micro-fracture ankle surgery, but has shown to be one baseball’s best outfielders when healthy. The enigmatic Yasiel Puig is slated to start next to Kemp in the outfield in 2014, and when his head is in the game, he has shown the potential to be a stud outfielder. The Dodgers roster is certainly loaded with talent, but the mass of contracts that the team took on in a 2012 trade with the Red Sox may hinder their financial freedom in future years.
Shortstop Hanley Ramirez has proven to be one of baseball’s best shortstops when healthy, and this has been a struggle throughout his career. In 2013, he battled a hamstring strain and thumb injury, which limited him to only 86 games. On the field, he appeared to be having one of his best seasons - he batted .345 and hit 20 home runs in roughly half a season. His HR/FB rate was a clear outlier in his career trends, suggesting that the power numbers may be suspect. While his BABIP was much higher than his career baseline, he improved his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone, and decreased it on pitches outside the strike zone. This will generally lead to balls in play that have a higher likelihood of being a hit, which would help raise his average. Better contact would have also led to a higher line drive rate (LD%), and this proved true in 2013, as Ramirez’s 22.0% was the best of his career. This means that Hanley’s batting average increase has a higher probability of repeating than his power numbers, but both should regress to some degree. Overall, Ramirez could produce statistics around a .300 AVG and 25 HR, with decent speed as well, with the large caveat of health.
X Factor – Yasiel Puig
In only his second year in the organization, the Dodgers called up Puig, who ended up staying in the majors and playing 104 games. His .313 AVG seems to be driven by a high BABIP, but his power/speed combo is legitimate. He can easily post a 20 HR/20 SB season, and have an AVG near .300. However, questions loom about his character. He was arrested this offseason for reckless driving, has been called selfish and flashy, and manager Don Mattingly has suggested that he has faked injuries during this spring training. According to an ESPN report by Mark Saxon, Mattingly said, “[Puig] grabs something every time he takes a swing and misses,” and responded with seemingly sarcastic answers to other questions about the possible injury. If Puig can limit the off-the-field issues, he has the potential to be one of the best outfielders in baseball.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished exactly .500 last season, at 81 wins and 81 losses. Entering 2014, their starting lineup is at or above league average, but their pitching staff is below average, and it was hurt even more by the loss of ace Patrick Corbin for the season because of Tommy John surgery.
Their mediocre 2013 was highlighted by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt’s breakout season, as he hit 36 home runs, and had a .302 AVG. Across the diamond, third baseman Martin Prado provides a little bit of everything on offense – AVG, power and speed – and has extreme flexibility on defense. In the past two seasons, Prado has played games at all the infield positions except catcher, and left field. This allows for roster flexibility, which is an underrated aspect of the game. This offseason, they traded pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for slugging outfielder Mark Trumbo. Trumbo will likely start as the Diamondbacks’ left fielder this season. After the 2012 season, Trumbo seemed to be line for some BABIP correction, but it overcorrected in 2013. Trumbo will provide strong power, but without a BABIP rebound his AVG will be a liability.
Pitcher Brandon McCarthy had a disappointing debut season in Arizona in 2013. His ERA ballooned to 4.53, and his strikeouts dropped to 5.07 K/9, which would have been third lowest in the league had he pitched enough innings to qualify. However, his peripheral numbers seem to suggest that his true skill is better than what he showed. While his 2012 ERA seemed to be driven by a career high strand rate, it overcorrected in 2013, and should help him limit runs in 2014 as it regresses to the mean. Furthermore, his HR/FB% was an outlier compared to his career numbers, which should regress, bringing his ERA down as well. His low velocity and below average off-speed pitches cap his potential as a #3 or #4 pitcher in an average rotation, but he should improve upon his 2013 season.
X Factor – Bronson Arroyo
Veteran pitcher Bronson Arroyo signed with the Diamondbacks during the offseason on a two year, $23.5 million contract. Arroyo is entering his 13th major league season, and has been relying on pinpoint control and pitching to contact for his success. Very few pitchers can walk this fine line, but Arroyo has had success doing this. However, his velocity has been consistently dropping over the past few seasons, which may catch up to him eventually. If Arroyo can continue living on the edge of this dangerous pitching style, he can see success through this contract, but one small slip may spell disaster.
San Francisco Giants
A year removed from winning the World Series, the San Francisco Giants dropped to third in the division in 2013, losing 18 more games than the previous season. The team made only minor offseason moves, so they will need rebound performances from third baseman Pablo Sandoval and pitcher Matt Cain to return to the playoffs. Of the players they did add, outfielder Michael Morse and veteran pitcher Tim Hudson are the most notable. Morse has still yet to follow up his 2011 season, where he posted a .303 AVG and slugged 31 home runs. That dominance was not to stay, and injury issues and poor performance resulted in only 337 plate appearances and a midseason trade in 2013. Tim Hudson had success as an extreme groundball pitcher in Atlanta, but as he has gotten older, he has produced fewer groundballs, and seen his ERA rise as well. He will be a solid pitcher at the back of the Giants’ rotation, but has limited upside at his age.
Third baseman Pablo Sandoval has struggled to repeat his stellar 2011 season. Some blame it on his weight, as he reached 270 pounds in past season, which has negatively affected his baserunning and fielding. This offseason, he reportedly has lost significant weight, which may help his performance. His 2011 power surge seems to be driven by a high HR/FB%, so the following seasons seem to be more accurate representations of his true skill. However, it is important to acknowledge that he could have a “fluke” power season in 2014, so 25 home runs is not out of the question, but just unlikely.
Pitcher Matt Cain had a down season by his standards in 2013, as his ERA jumped from 2.79 to 4.00. His jump in ERA can be explained by his peripheral numbers and previous career trends. In 2011, Cain had one of his best seasons with a 2.88 ERA and 4.6 WAR. With this, he had a career best ground ball rate (GB%), and had a minuscule 3.7 HR/FB%, both of which contributed to his low ERA. In the following year, both his GB% and HR/FB% regressed to his career average, which theoretically would have increased his ERA. However, his strand rate soared to a career high, which kept his ERA down, and counteracted the other regression. In 2013, his strand rate, GB% and HR/FB% were around his career average, so one statistic was not “covering up” for another, which was the case in his previous seasons. In 2014, his numbers should stay around his career average, so Cain’s days of a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher seem to be over.
X Factor – Marco Scutaro
Second baseman Marco Scutaro provides only a strong AVG (.297) on offense – he hit two home runs and stole only two bases last season. His high average was produced by an incredible contact rate, as Scutaro made contact on 95.7% of the pitches he swung at last season. His high average is very valuable at the top of the lineup, as it “sets the table” for the heart of the lineup. He is battling a hand injury, and will likely start the season on the disabled list. The Giants need his high AVG back if they want to make a playoff run this season.
Colorado Rockies
Coors Field in Colorado is notorious for its extreme inflation of offensive production due to the high elevation. According to FanGraphs’ park factors, Coors Field’s home run park factor was 113 in 2013, which indicates that it allows home runs at a rate much higher than league average – 113 was the highest in the league. Because of this, Rockies’ starters seem struggle to post good ERAs. In 2013, the team posted the third worst team ERA in the league. The park did help them on offense, as they scored the tenth most runs in the league, but overall, the pitching woes outweighed the offensive benefits, and the Rockies finished last in the division. They added first baseman Justin Morneau, who will slot in as the starting first baseman, and fill the big shoes of Todd Helton. In the rotation, the Rockies added Brett Anderson, who has showed some potential while fighting many injuries. His above average ground ball rates may help him see success with Colorado (more groundballs = fewer fly balls = fewer home runs). Overall, the park factors and the lack of rotation depth suggest that the Rockies are still far from the playoffs.
2012 was catcher Wilin Rosario’s first full major league season, and he performed well, recording strong power numbers and a serviceable average. In 2013, a high LD% drove a high BABIP, which improved his average. The LD% supported, high BABIP is partially legitimate, indicating that an AVG near .285 is plausible for 2014. His HR/FB% has been lofty throughout his career, but another similar season may suggest that this is Rosario’s career norm. Rosario has established himself as a great power hitting catcher, and any AVG is simply gravy.
X Factor – Justin Morneau
First baseman Justin Morneau was once one of baseball’s best before brutal concussion issues stole seasons from him. To ask him to hit 34 home runs like his 2006 season would be too much, but if he can provide 20 home runs in the middle of the Rockies lineup he can help the team play to the park’s strengths, and get out of the cellar of the division.
San Diego Padres
In the team’s 45 year history, the San Diego Padres have yet to win a World Series. They came close in 1998, losing to the Yankees in the championship. If the pieces fall into place over the next few seasons, the Padres may be looking toward a postseason appearance sooner rather than later. On offense, they have a young core of players in second baseman Jedd Gyorko, first baseman Yonder Alonso, and catcher Yasmani Grandal. All have shown significant power potential, and are all under 26. In the rotation, pitcher Tyson Ross seems to be lined up for a breakout season, and is only 25. If they can add another strong pitcher to complement Ross, Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner, a 2017 postseason run may be in the cards.
Jedd Gyorko showed great potential in his first season in the majors. He hit 23 home runs in just under a full season of work, and a low BABIP with a strong LD% may suggest that his .249 AVG will increase in 2014. He became much more free-swinging in his first major league season, which may cap his AVG potential, but he should be a staple of the Padres for seasons to come.
Pitcher Tyson Ross posted a 3.17 ERA and high strikeout numbers in his first full season in the majors. He used his fastball 61% of the time, and it was decent, averaging 94.1 mph but was relatively “flat” – it had minimal horizontal movement, and opposing hitters batted .310 against it in 2013. His best pitch was his slider, which drew a whiff roughly every other swing. If he can add more movement to his fastball, it will pair nicely with his slider, and he will step forward and lead the rotation in the future.
X Factor – Chase Headley
In 2012, third baseman Chase Headley slugged 31 home runs, almost doubling his career home run total to that point. However, in 2013, his total fell to only 13. His AVG fell as well, which was almost exclusively tied to his BABIP. He had shown a history of sustaining a high BABIP, so his AVG should rebound, but he needs to perform well in 2014 to help the team and show that his power surge in 2011 was more than merely a HR/FB% anomaly.
The Los Angeles Dodgers had a very successful season in 2013 – which came as no surprise, seeing that they had the second highest team payroll. Their pitching staff was dominant, posting the lowest ERA as a rotation in the league. Clayton Kershaw was at the front of the rotation again, recording an ERA of 1.63, which was by far the lowest ERA in the league among qualified pitchers. They added veteran pitcher Dan Haren this offseason, who is coming off of a disappointing season. Although his velocity is not what it used to be, he is signed for a relatively inexpensive contract, and can be an innings-eater at the least. On the offensive side, center fielder Matt Kemp is coming off of micro-fracture ankle surgery, but has shown to be one baseball’s best outfielders when healthy. The enigmatic Yasiel Puig is slated to start next to Kemp in the outfield in 2014, and when his head is in the game, he has shown the potential to be a stud outfielder. The Dodgers roster is certainly loaded with talent, but the mass of contracts that the team took on in a 2012 trade with the Red Sox may hinder their financial freedom in future years.
Shortstop Hanley Ramirez has proven to be one of baseball’s best shortstops when healthy, and this has been a struggle throughout his career. In 2013, he battled a hamstring strain and thumb injury, which limited him to only 86 games. On the field, he appeared to be having one of his best seasons - he batted .345 and hit 20 home runs in roughly half a season. His HR/FB rate was a clear outlier in his career trends, suggesting that the power numbers may be suspect. While his BABIP was much higher than his career baseline, he improved his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone, and decreased it on pitches outside the strike zone. This will generally lead to balls in play that have a higher likelihood of being a hit, which would help raise his average. Better contact would have also led to a higher line drive rate (LD%), and this proved true in 2013, as Ramirez’s 22.0% was the best of his career. This means that Hanley’s batting average increase has a higher probability of repeating than his power numbers, but both should regress to some degree. Overall, Ramirez could produce statistics around a .300 AVG and 25 HR, with decent speed as well, with the large caveat of health.
X Factor – Yasiel Puig
In only his second year in the organization, the Dodgers called up Puig, who ended up staying in the majors and playing 104 games. His .313 AVG seems to be driven by a high BABIP, but his power/speed combo is legitimate. He can easily post a 20 HR/20 SB season, and have an AVG near .300. However, questions loom about his character. He was arrested this offseason for reckless driving, has been called selfish and flashy, and manager Don Mattingly has suggested that he has faked injuries during this spring training. According to an ESPN report by Mark Saxon, Mattingly said, “[Puig] grabs something every time he takes a swing and misses,” and responded with seemingly sarcastic answers to other questions about the possible injury. If Puig can limit the off-the-field issues, he has the potential to be one of the best outfielders in baseball.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished exactly .500 last season, at 81 wins and 81 losses. Entering 2014, their starting lineup is at or above league average, but their pitching staff is below average, and it was hurt even more by the loss of ace Patrick Corbin for the season because of Tommy John surgery.
Their mediocre 2013 was highlighted by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt’s breakout season, as he hit 36 home runs, and had a .302 AVG. Across the diamond, third baseman Martin Prado provides a little bit of everything on offense – AVG, power and speed – and has extreme flexibility on defense. In the past two seasons, Prado has played games at all the infield positions except catcher, and left field. This allows for roster flexibility, which is an underrated aspect of the game. This offseason, they traded pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for slugging outfielder Mark Trumbo. Trumbo will likely start as the Diamondbacks’ left fielder this season. After the 2012 season, Trumbo seemed to be line for some BABIP correction, but it overcorrected in 2013. Trumbo will provide strong power, but without a BABIP rebound his AVG will be a liability.
Pitcher Brandon McCarthy had a disappointing debut season in Arizona in 2013. His ERA ballooned to 4.53, and his strikeouts dropped to 5.07 K/9, which would have been third lowest in the league had he pitched enough innings to qualify. However, his peripheral numbers seem to suggest that his true skill is better than what he showed. While his 2012 ERA seemed to be driven by a career high strand rate, it overcorrected in 2013, and should help him limit runs in 2014 as it regresses to the mean. Furthermore, his HR/FB% was an outlier compared to his career numbers, which should regress, bringing his ERA down as well. His low velocity and below average off-speed pitches cap his potential as a #3 or #4 pitcher in an average rotation, but he should improve upon his 2013 season.
X Factor – Bronson Arroyo
Veteran pitcher Bronson Arroyo signed with the Diamondbacks during the offseason on a two year, $23.5 million contract. Arroyo is entering his 13th major league season, and has been relying on pinpoint control and pitching to contact for his success. Very few pitchers can walk this fine line, but Arroyo has had success doing this. However, his velocity has been consistently dropping over the past few seasons, which may catch up to him eventually. If Arroyo can continue living on the edge of this dangerous pitching style, he can see success through this contract, but one small slip may spell disaster.
San Francisco Giants
A year removed from winning the World Series, the San Francisco Giants dropped to third in the division in 2013, losing 18 more games than the previous season. The team made only minor offseason moves, so they will need rebound performances from third baseman Pablo Sandoval and pitcher Matt Cain to return to the playoffs. Of the players they did add, outfielder Michael Morse and veteran pitcher Tim Hudson are the most notable. Morse has still yet to follow up his 2011 season, where he posted a .303 AVG and slugged 31 home runs. That dominance was not to stay, and injury issues and poor performance resulted in only 337 plate appearances and a midseason trade in 2013. Tim Hudson had success as an extreme groundball pitcher in Atlanta, but as he has gotten older, he has produced fewer groundballs, and seen his ERA rise as well. He will be a solid pitcher at the back of the Giants’ rotation, but has limited upside at his age.
Third baseman Pablo Sandoval has struggled to repeat his stellar 2011 season. Some blame it on his weight, as he reached 270 pounds in past season, which has negatively affected his baserunning and fielding. This offseason, he reportedly has lost significant weight, which may help his performance. His 2011 power surge seems to be driven by a high HR/FB%, so the following seasons seem to be more accurate representations of his true skill. However, it is important to acknowledge that he could have a “fluke” power season in 2014, so 25 home runs is not out of the question, but just unlikely.
Pitcher Matt Cain had a down season by his standards in 2013, as his ERA jumped from 2.79 to 4.00. His jump in ERA can be explained by his peripheral numbers and previous career trends. In 2011, Cain had one of his best seasons with a 2.88 ERA and 4.6 WAR. With this, he had a career best ground ball rate (GB%), and had a minuscule 3.7 HR/FB%, both of which contributed to his low ERA. In the following year, both his GB% and HR/FB% regressed to his career average, which theoretically would have increased his ERA. However, his strand rate soared to a career high, which kept his ERA down, and counteracted the other regression. In 2013, his strand rate, GB% and HR/FB% were around his career average, so one statistic was not “covering up” for another, which was the case in his previous seasons. In 2014, his numbers should stay around his career average, so Cain’s days of a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher seem to be over.
X Factor – Marco Scutaro
Second baseman Marco Scutaro provides only a strong AVG (.297) on offense – he hit two home runs and stole only two bases last season. His high average was produced by an incredible contact rate, as Scutaro made contact on 95.7% of the pitches he swung at last season. His high average is very valuable at the top of the lineup, as it “sets the table” for the heart of the lineup. He is battling a hand injury, and will likely start the season on the disabled list. The Giants need his high AVG back if they want to make a playoff run this season.
Colorado Rockies
Coors Field in Colorado is notorious for its extreme inflation of offensive production due to the high elevation. According to FanGraphs’ park factors, Coors Field’s home run park factor was 113 in 2013, which indicates that it allows home runs at a rate much higher than league average – 113 was the highest in the league. Because of this, Rockies’ starters seem struggle to post good ERAs. In 2013, the team posted the third worst team ERA in the league. The park did help them on offense, as they scored the tenth most runs in the league, but overall, the pitching woes outweighed the offensive benefits, and the Rockies finished last in the division. They added first baseman Justin Morneau, who will slot in as the starting first baseman, and fill the big shoes of Todd Helton. In the rotation, the Rockies added Brett Anderson, who has showed some potential while fighting many injuries. His above average ground ball rates may help him see success with Colorado (more groundballs = fewer fly balls = fewer home runs). Overall, the park factors and the lack of rotation depth suggest that the Rockies are still far from the playoffs.
2012 was catcher Wilin Rosario’s first full major league season, and he performed well, recording strong power numbers and a serviceable average. In 2013, a high LD% drove a high BABIP, which improved his average. The LD% supported, high BABIP is partially legitimate, indicating that an AVG near .285 is plausible for 2014. His HR/FB% has been lofty throughout his career, but another similar season may suggest that this is Rosario’s career norm. Rosario has established himself as a great power hitting catcher, and any AVG is simply gravy.
X Factor – Justin Morneau
First baseman Justin Morneau was once one of baseball’s best before brutal concussion issues stole seasons from him. To ask him to hit 34 home runs like his 2006 season would be too much, but if he can provide 20 home runs in the middle of the Rockies lineup he can help the team play to the park’s strengths, and get out of the cellar of the division.
San Diego Padres
In the team’s 45 year history, the San Diego Padres have yet to win a World Series. They came close in 1998, losing to the Yankees in the championship. If the pieces fall into place over the next few seasons, the Padres may be looking toward a postseason appearance sooner rather than later. On offense, they have a young core of players in second baseman Jedd Gyorko, first baseman Yonder Alonso, and catcher Yasmani Grandal. All have shown significant power potential, and are all under 26. In the rotation, pitcher Tyson Ross seems to be lined up for a breakout season, and is only 25. If they can add another strong pitcher to complement Ross, Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner, a 2017 postseason run may be in the cards.
Jedd Gyorko showed great potential in his first season in the majors. He hit 23 home runs in just under a full season of work, and a low BABIP with a strong LD% may suggest that his .249 AVG will increase in 2014. He became much more free-swinging in his first major league season, which may cap his AVG potential, but he should be a staple of the Padres for seasons to come.
Pitcher Tyson Ross posted a 3.17 ERA and high strikeout numbers in his first full season in the majors. He used his fastball 61% of the time, and it was decent, averaging 94.1 mph but was relatively “flat” – it had minimal horizontal movement, and opposing hitters batted .310 against it in 2013. His best pitch was his slider, which drew a whiff roughly every other swing. If he can add more movement to his fastball, it will pair nicely with his slider, and he will step forward and lead the rotation in the future.
X Factor – Chase Headley
In 2012, third baseman Chase Headley slugged 31 home runs, almost doubling his career home run total to that point. However, in 2013, his total fell to only 13. His AVG fell as well, which was almost exclusively tied to his BABIP. He had shown a history of sustaining a high BABIP, so his AVG should rebound, but he needs to perform well in 2014 to help the team and show that his power surge in 2011 was more than merely a HR/FB% anomaly.