NL East Preview
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have spent much of the offseason signing young, high potential players to long-term contracts. From a financial standpoint, the contracts are such that if the players reach their potential, it would be at a high value for the team. There is also a chance that the players will not reach their potential, and in that case the contract would be a burden for the team. For example, the Braves signed pitcher Julio Teheran to a six year, $32.4 million contract after only one full season in the majors. If Teheran reaches his potential, he could be worth $15 million per year, instead of the $5.43 million he is making per year now. However, Teheran could flameout and turn into a bust, and the Braves will have committed a lot of money to him. Considering the players they signed to these types of deals (shortstop Andrelton Simmons, closer Craig Kimbrel, first baseman Freddie Freeman (slightly different contract type), and Teheran), these moves were very smart in the long run as they can establish a core group of players to build around, and have enough money to pursue necessary free agents.
Third baseman Chris Johnson quietly finished with the fifth highest AVG in the league among qualified players last season, and led those players with an astronomically high .394 BABIP. While generic, cookie-cutter analysis may suggest that that will severely decline in 2014, Johnson has shown high, sustainable BABIPs in previous seasons. Furthermore, he posted the eighth highest LD% (Line drives tend to have the highest BABIP relative to other batted ball types) in the league last season, and a margin of only 0.7% separated him from Gregor Blanco, who had the second highest. While a BABIP of almost 100 points above league average is not sustainable year to year, Johnson has shown the skills to maintain a high BABIP, and this will produce a consistently high AVG.
Outfielder Justin Upton signed a $51.2 million extension before the 2010 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which seemed like a great signing, as Upton was coming off of his breakout season, and flashed five-tool potential in the major leagues. His production was inconsistent, but good in subsequent years. However, he disappointed in 2012, which prompted a blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves before the 2013 season. In the past three seasons, he has improved his plate disciple from a swing percentage point of view, but he has increased his contact rates on pitches outside of the strike zone and decreased his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Contact on pitches outside the strike zone generally leads to balls in play that have a lower chance of being a hit, resulting in an increased probability of an out. This suggests that his average will not return to the .300 levels from early in his career. His contract is very backloaded ($14.2 million in 2014, $14.5 million in 2015) and he may not be as much of a value as he was in the earlier years of his contract.
X Factor - The Starting Rotation
The Braves’ rotation is full of potential, but also has some question marks. As of this writing, ace Kris Medlen left his spring training start with forearm tightness, which may be a precursor of elbow issues. The rest of the rotation is rounded out by the aforementioned Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, and Alex Wood. The 2014 season will be Minor’s third full season, Teheran’s second, and Wood’s first. Beachy’s stellar 2012 season was interrupted by Tommy John surgery, and he returned midway through the 2013 season with diminished velocity, as expected coming off of a major surgery. While the rotation will probably be above average, it is important to note that there are many question marks and nothing is “set”.
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals finished four games out of the playoffs last season, and that seems to be right where they will fall in the 2014 season - a good team, but not quite a contender. They certainly have a strong core of young players to build around in Stephen Strasberg, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, and Anthony Rendon, but the lack of offense firepower to compliment their elite rotation limits their potential. Their largest move this offseason was the acquisition of pitcher Doug Fister from the Detroit Tigers, which, as mentioned in a previous article, appears to be a steal. Fister continued to generate an above league average ground ball rate, which helps him limit home runs. His BABIP was higher than usual, but he has little control over that, and some of the blame can be put on the poor infield defense by the Tigers. He should rebound from that, and is at a great value for the next two seasons.
Outfielder Bryce Harper burst into baseball in the shadow of Mike Trout in 2012, and demonstrated a five-tool skill set. He followed 2012 with a successful sophomore season. While he missed time in 2013 with an injury, according to Baseball Reference, if his numbers were extrapolated over a full season, he would have hit close to 26 home runs and stolen almost 20 bases. Furthermore, Harper has shown the ability to hit for power to all fields, which writer Ed DeCaria has found to indicate true power potential. Last season, Harper hit 25% of his home runs to the opposite field (left field, in Harper’s case, because he bats left-handed), which was an increase from the 13.6% he hit last season. Harper has immense potential, and may be primed for a further breakout in 2014.
Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has quietly been an elite pitcher in the MLB for the past three years. His lack of high strikeout totals unjustly keeps him out of Cy Young consideration, but his ERA and other peripheral statistics are above league average. In 2012, Zimmermann posted a 2.94 ERA which was partially driven by a career high strand rate, which regressed in 2013. However, he has been increasing his ground ball rates, helping him limit fly balls, and thus home runs. If he can return his strand rate to his 2012 levels, it will help him regain his dominance, but he will still be a good pitcher regardless.
X Factor - Ryan Zimmerman
While it may seem odd to have a proven veteran as an X Factor, Zimmerman has battled injuries the past three seasons, missing time for abdominal, shoulder, and hamstring issues. When healthy, he can provide power and some AVG, but his skills are declining and he is slowly turning into a one dimensional player. If he can slow the slide in AVG and OBP, he can help the Nationals make a playoff push. However, if the injury bug strikes again, the Nationals will be forced to shift pieces in the infield and slot replacement level players into key positions.
New York Mets
It appeared that the New York Mets were finally ready to spend significant money this offseason to acquire free agents to try to make a much needed playoff appearance, as they have reached the playoffs only one time since 2000 and only three times since 1990. But, the teams spending was hindered by the inordinate amount of debt that plagues the team and the regional television network, which is owned by the team. According to an article published by Forbes, the team has approximately $900 million in debt obligations. This debt will continue to restrict their free agent spending, and they do not have enough talent in their farm system to make a playoff run strictly through youth. They did, however, sign outfielder Curtis Granderson and pitcher Bartolo Colon this offseason, but both are past their prime. Granderson missed almost all of the 2013 season after breaking his forearm in spring training, and then breaking his finger soon after he returned. While Granderson hit over 40 home runs in the 2012 and 2011 seasons, he used Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field to his advantage, as he pulled 86% of his home runs. Granderson should still hit for power, but age and a new park will limit him to under 30 home runs. Colon worked a relative miracle last season, posting an ERA of 2.65 and posting his highest WAR since 2005. His success can mainly be attributed to a minuscule HR/FB% and a very high strand rate. These should regress in 2014, and his skills should start to erode as he enters this season at age 42.
Pitcher Zack Wheeler made his major league debut in 2013, and performed well, posting elite strike out rates and having a strong ERA, but struggled with his control, allowing 4.14 BB/9. His best pitch was arguably his fastball, as it averaged 94.4 mph and held opposing hitters to a .238 AVG last season. However, his rarely used change up was poor, and while it may seem easy to assume he should drop it all together, doing that would be detrimental to his success. His curveball and slider move horizontally toward a left handed hitter, and his sinker and change up move toward a right handed hitter. Because of this, his slider and curveball draw more whiffs and generate more ground balls against lefties than righties. The opposite is true for his sinker - it draws more whiffs and produces more ground balls against right-handed hitters than left handed hitters. (In a very small sample size last season, he didn’t throw any change ups against righties, so no comparison is available.) If he were to eliminate his change up, his sinker would have to be his primary “out pitch” against righties, and at this stage in his career, his sinker is not strong enough. Nonetheless, he will need to develop his change up and sinker to have long lasting success in the majors, and at his young age he has plenty of time for those pitches to improve.
X-Factor: Ike Davis
Ike Davis debuted for the Mets in 2010, and has been incredibly inconsistent year-to-year. He had a decent rookie season, batting .264 and hitting 19 home runs. He missed much of the 2011 season due to injury, and rebounded in 2012 to smash 32 home runs, but at a lower average. 2013 was a big disappointment, as he hit only 9 home runs and his AVG fell to .205. In hindsight, it is easy to see that his major power spike was from an extreme HR/FB%, and his decreasing LD% suggests that his AVG should stay in the low .200s. If he could reverse the trend, it would give the Mets a cost-effective, complementary line up piece.
Miami Marlins
Before the 2012 season started, the Miami Marlins unveiled their new stadium, drawing excitement from their fans. The park did not work magic on the team, however, and the Marlins finished last in their division in 2012. This prompted a massive salary dump, as the team traded shortstop Jose Reyes, and pitchers Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays. In return the Marlins got a handful of prospects, and none of them have panned out so far. Overall, this trade cleared a total of $163.75 million in guaranteed salaries, but also destroyed the fan base. The Marlins finished second to last in average attendance in 2013, drawing roughly 19,500 fans per home game. For comparison, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the highest home game average attendance total of roughly 46,000 fans per game. While the Marlins have a lot of money to spend, the alienated fan base and the lack of current talent on the roster discourages free agents from signing with them. It appears to be a long building period for the Marlins, and impact players do not appear to be on the way - Baseball America rated the Marlins with a below average farm system.
Outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is the lone bright spot in the Marlins lineup, but his production has been worsening, although it is not solely his fault. With no other feared hitters in the lineup around him, the pitchers can nibble at the corners and not give Stanton a solid pitch to hit. If pitching around Stanton results in a walk, the negative effects are mitigated by the poor hitters behind him. There is no questioning Stanton’s talent - he hit 37 home runs and posted a .290 AVG in 2012 - but the below average line-up around him will steal chances away from him, diminishing his overall production.
Pitcher Jose Fernandez took the league by storm last season, as his 2.19 ERA was second lowest in the league among qualified pitchers. While some of his success may be attributed to a low BABIP and a high strand rate, he posted an elite K/9, and his fastball averaged a blistering 94.9 mph. He held opposing hitters to a .180 AVG, which was best in the league. His elite skill set and history of dominance in the minors suggests that he should continue to shine in 2014.
X Factor - Christian Yelich
Much-hyped outfielder prospect Christian Yelich debuted in 2013, and his performance was a little underwhelming. He mustered just four home runs and 10 stolen bases to go with a .288 AVG after showing power/speed potential in the minors. While it is far too early to write him off, his strikeout rate was very high, and he doesn’t make up for the high strikeout totals with strong power numbers. If he continues to develop into a solid, every-day player, it would help the Marlins, and help drive fans to the games.
Philadelphia Phillies
Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies had the third oldest average hitters’ age, and the seventh oldest average pitchers’ age. The large number of veterans were not in the system to specifically be an example for younger players, but as a collection of post-peak starters. The rotation features tandem-aces Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, who have seven All-star appearances and one Cy Young Award between them. However, the rest of the rotation has serious questions, as AJ Burnett is entering his age 37 season, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has yet to make an MLB start, and Kyle Kendrick posted a 6.49 ERA from July to the end of last season.
One of the few young, solid players in the starting line up, Domonic Brown had his breakout season in 2013. Breakout half, would be more accurate, as in the first half he hit 23 of his 27 home runs while his AVG stayed consistent. To be fair, he missed the last quarter of the season, but his slugging percentage was .145 higher in the first half compared to the second half. He does have a swing-and-miss tendency above league average, so that will cap his AVG potential, but he will still be a young player that the Phillies could build around. In 2014, his AVG should stay around .270, and his home runs should be in the 20s.
X Factor - Carlos Ruiz
Carlos Ruiz had a career year in 2012, but after the season, he tested positive for an amphetamine, and was suspended for the first 25 games of the 2013 season. His production collapsed to before-2012 numbers in 2013, but the Phillies still signed him to a three year, $26 million contract this offseason. The team will need him to rebound and prove his 2012 is not a fluke to justify this large contract.
The Atlanta Braves have spent much of the offseason signing young, high potential players to long-term contracts. From a financial standpoint, the contracts are such that if the players reach their potential, it would be at a high value for the team. There is also a chance that the players will not reach their potential, and in that case the contract would be a burden for the team. For example, the Braves signed pitcher Julio Teheran to a six year, $32.4 million contract after only one full season in the majors. If Teheran reaches his potential, he could be worth $15 million per year, instead of the $5.43 million he is making per year now. However, Teheran could flameout and turn into a bust, and the Braves will have committed a lot of money to him. Considering the players they signed to these types of deals (shortstop Andrelton Simmons, closer Craig Kimbrel, first baseman Freddie Freeman (slightly different contract type), and Teheran), these moves were very smart in the long run as they can establish a core group of players to build around, and have enough money to pursue necessary free agents.
Third baseman Chris Johnson quietly finished with the fifth highest AVG in the league among qualified players last season, and led those players with an astronomically high .394 BABIP. While generic, cookie-cutter analysis may suggest that that will severely decline in 2014, Johnson has shown high, sustainable BABIPs in previous seasons. Furthermore, he posted the eighth highest LD% (Line drives tend to have the highest BABIP relative to other batted ball types) in the league last season, and a margin of only 0.7% separated him from Gregor Blanco, who had the second highest. While a BABIP of almost 100 points above league average is not sustainable year to year, Johnson has shown the skills to maintain a high BABIP, and this will produce a consistently high AVG.
Outfielder Justin Upton signed a $51.2 million extension before the 2010 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which seemed like a great signing, as Upton was coming off of his breakout season, and flashed five-tool potential in the major leagues. His production was inconsistent, but good in subsequent years. However, he disappointed in 2012, which prompted a blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves before the 2013 season. In the past three seasons, he has improved his plate disciple from a swing percentage point of view, but he has increased his contact rates on pitches outside of the strike zone and decreased his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Contact on pitches outside the strike zone generally leads to balls in play that have a lower chance of being a hit, resulting in an increased probability of an out. This suggests that his average will not return to the .300 levels from early in his career. His contract is very backloaded ($14.2 million in 2014, $14.5 million in 2015) and he may not be as much of a value as he was in the earlier years of his contract.
X Factor - The Starting Rotation
The Braves’ rotation is full of potential, but also has some question marks. As of this writing, ace Kris Medlen left his spring training start with forearm tightness, which may be a precursor of elbow issues. The rest of the rotation is rounded out by the aforementioned Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, and Alex Wood. The 2014 season will be Minor’s third full season, Teheran’s second, and Wood’s first. Beachy’s stellar 2012 season was interrupted by Tommy John surgery, and he returned midway through the 2013 season with diminished velocity, as expected coming off of a major surgery. While the rotation will probably be above average, it is important to note that there are many question marks and nothing is “set”.
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals finished four games out of the playoffs last season, and that seems to be right where they will fall in the 2014 season - a good team, but not quite a contender. They certainly have a strong core of young players to build around in Stephen Strasberg, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, and Anthony Rendon, but the lack of offense firepower to compliment their elite rotation limits their potential. Their largest move this offseason was the acquisition of pitcher Doug Fister from the Detroit Tigers, which, as mentioned in a previous article, appears to be a steal. Fister continued to generate an above league average ground ball rate, which helps him limit home runs. His BABIP was higher than usual, but he has little control over that, and some of the blame can be put on the poor infield defense by the Tigers. He should rebound from that, and is at a great value for the next two seasons.
Outfielder Bryce Harper burst into baseball in the shadow of Mike Trout in 2012, and demonstrated a five-tool skill set. He followed 2012 with a successful sophomore season. While he missed time in 2013 with an injury, according to Baseball Reference, if his numbers were extrapolated over a full season, he would have hit close to 26 home runs and stolen almost 20 bases. Furthermore, Harper has shown the ability to hit for power to all fields, which writer Ed DeCaria has found to indicate true power potential. Last season, Harper hit 25% of his home runs to the opposite field (left field, in Harper’s case, because he bats left-handed), which was an increase from the 13.6% he hit last season. Harper has immense potential, and may be primed for a further breakout in 2014.
Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has quietly been an elite pitcher in the MLB for the past three years. His lack of high strikeout totals unjustly keeps him out of Cy Young consideration, but his ERA and other peripheral statistics are above league average. In 2012, Zimmermann posted a 2.94 ERA which was partially driven by a career high strand rate, which regressed in 2013. However, he has been increasing his ground ball rates, helping him limit fly balls, and thus home runs. If he can return his strand rate to his 2012 levels, it will help him regain his dominance, but he will still be a good pitcher regardless.
X Factor - Ryan Zimmerman
While it may seem odd to have a proven veteran as an X Factor, Zimmerman has battled injuries the past three seasons, missing time for abdominal, shoulder, and hamstring issues. When healthy, he can provide power and some AVG, but his skills are declining and he is slowly turning into a one dimensional player. If he can slow the slide in AVG and OBP, he can help the Nationals make a playoff push. However, if the injury bug strikes again, the Nationals will be forced to shift pieces in the infield and slot replacement level players into key positions.
New York Mets
It appeared that the New York Mets were finally ready to spend significant money this offseason to acquire free agents to try to make a much needed playoff appearance, as they have reached the playoffs only one time since 2000 and only three times since 1990. But, the teams spending was hindered by the inordinate amount of debt that plagues the team and the regional television network, which is owned by the team. According to an article published by Forbes, the team has approximately $900 million in debt obligations. This debt will continue to restrict their free agent spending, and they do not have enough talent in their farm system to make a playoff run strictly through youth. They did, however, sign outfielder Curtis Granderson and pitcher Bartolo Colon this offseason, but both are past their prime. Granderson missed almost all of the 2013 season after breaking his forearm in spring training, and then breaking his finger soon after he returned. While Granderson hit over 40 home runs in the 2012 and 2011 seasons, he used Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field to his advantage, as he pulled 86% of his home runs. Granderson should still hit for power, but age and a new park will limit him to under 30 home runs. Colon worked a relative miracle last season, posting an ERA of 2.65 and posting his highest WAR since 2005. His success can mainly be attributed to a minuscule HR/FB% and a very high strand rate. These should regress in 2014, and his skills should start to erode as he enters this season at age 42.
Pitcher Zack Wheeler made his major league debut in 2013, and performed well, posting elite strike out rates and having a strong ERA, but struggled with his control, allowing 4.14 BB/9. His best pitch was arguably his fastball, as it averaged 94.4 mph and held opposing hitters to a .238 AVG last season. However, his rarely used change up was poor, and while it may seem easy to assume he should drop it all together, doing that would be detrimental to his success. His curveball and slider move horizontally toward a left handed hitter, and his sinker and change up move toward a right handed hitter. Because of this, his slider and curveball draw more whiffs and generate more ground balls against lefties than righties. The opposite is true for his sinker - it draws more whiffs and produces more ground balls against right-handed hitters than left handed hitters. (In a very small sample size last season, he didn’t throw any change ups against righties, so no comparison is available.) If he were to eliminate his change up, his sinker would have to be his primary “out pitch” against righties, and at this stage in his career, his sinker is not strong enough. Nonetheless, he will need to develop his change up and sinker to have long lasting success in the majors, and at his young age he has plenty of time for those pitches to improve.
X-Factor: Ike Davis
Ike Davis debuted for the Mets in 2010, and has been incredibly inconsistent year-to-year. He had a decent rookie season, batting .264 and hitting 19 home runs. He missed much of the 2011 season due to injury, and rebounded in 2012 to smash 32 home runs, but at a lower average. 2013 was a big disappointment, as he hit only 9 home runs and his AVG fell to .205. In hindsight, it is easy to see that his major power spike was from an extreme HR/FB%, and his decreasing LD% suggests that his AVG should stay in the low .200s. If he could reverse the trend, it would give the Mets a cost-effective, complementary line up piece.
Miami Marlins
Before the 2012 season started, the Miami Marlins unveiled their new stadium, drawing excitement from their fans. The park did not work magic on the team, however, and the Marlins finished last in their division in 2012. This prompted a massive salary dump, as the team traded shortstop Jose Reyes, and pitchers Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays. In return the Marlins got a handful of prospects, and none of them have panned out so far. Overall, this trade cleared a total of $163.75 million in guaranteed salaries, but also destroyed the fan base. The Marlins finished second to last in average attendance in 2013, drawing roughly 19,500 fans per home game. For comparison, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the highest home game average attendance total of roughly 46,000 fans per game. While the Marlins have a lot of money to spend, the alienated fan base and the lack of current talent on the roster discourages free agents from signing with them. It appears to be a long building period for the Marlins, and impact players do not appear to be on the way - Baseball America rated the Marlins with a below average farm system.
Outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is the lone bright spot in the Marlins lineup, but his production has been worsening, although it is not solely his fault. With no other feared hitters in the lineup around him, the pitchers can nibble at the corners and not give Stanton a solid pitch to hit. If pitching around Stanton results in a walk, the negative effects are mitigated by the poor hitters behind him. There is no questioning Stanton’s talent - he hit 37 home runs and posted a .290 AVG in 2012 - but the below average line-up around him will steal chances away from him, diminishing his overall production.
Pitcher Jose Fernandez took the league by storm last season, as his 2.19 ERA was second lowest in the league among qualified pitchers. While some of his success may be attributed to a low BABIP and a high strand rate, he posted an elite K/9, and his fastball averaged a blistering 94.9 mph. He held opposing hitters to a .180 AVG, which was best in the league. His elite skill set and history of dominance in the minors suggests that he should continue to shine in 2014.
X Factor - Christian Yelich
Much-hyped outfielder prospect Christian Yelich debuted in 2013, and his performance was a little underwhelming. He mustered just four home runs and 10 stolen bases to go with a .288 AVG after showing power/speed potential in the minors. While it is far too early to write him off, his strikeout rate was very high, and he doesn’t make up for the high strikeout totals with strong power numbers. If he continues to develop into a solid, every-day player, it would help the Marlins, and help drive fans to the games.
Philadelphia Phillies
Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies had the third oldest average hitters’ age, and the seventh oldest average pitchers’ age. The large number of veterans were not in the system to specifically be an example for younger players, but as a collection of post-peak starters. The rotation features tandem-aces Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, who have seven All-star appearances and one Cy Young Award between them. However, the rest of the rotation has serious questions, as AJ Burnett is entering his age 37 season, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has yet to make an MLB start, and Kyle Kendrick posted a 6.49 ERA from July to the end of last season.
One of the few young, solid players in the starting line up, Domonic Brown had his breakout season in 2013. Breakout half, would be more accurate, as in the first half he hit 23 of his 27 home runs while his AVG stayed consistent. To be fair, he missed the last quarter of the season, but his slugging percentage was .145 higher in the first half compared to the second half. He does have a swing-and-miss tendency above league average, so that will cap his AVG potential, but he will still be a young player that the Phillies could build around. In 2014, his AVG should stay around .270, and his home runs should be in the 20s.
X Factor - Carlos Ruiz
Carlos Ruiz had a career year in 2012, but after the season, he tested positive for an amphetamine, and was suspended for the first 25 games of the 2013 season. His production collapsed to before-2012 numbers in 2013, but the Phillies still signed him to a three year, $26 million contract this offseason. The team will need him to rebound and prove his 2012 is not a fluke to justify this large contract.