NL Central Preview
St. Louis Cardinals
The reigning National League Champions look like one of the most interesting teams in baseball this season. They have a great balance of young players who have the potential to be studs, and veterans who are in the prime of their career. Third baseman Matt Carpenter, second baseman Kolten Wong, and first baseman Matt Adams are all projected to be starters, and are all under 28. Their pitching staff was better than league average in almost all categories, and on offense, they limited strikeouts as a team, which helped them produce the third most runs in the league. They had a moderately busy offseason, as they traded third baseman David Freese and reliever Fernando Salas to the Angels for outfielder Peter Bourjos and reliever Randal Grichuk. As explained in the American League West preview, Freese’s power breakout in 2012 appears to be a fluke because of his HR/FB%, and the large number of home runs that were just barely over the wall, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker. This deal seems to favor the Cardinals, as Bourjos has demonstrated a solid AVG and some speed potential throughout his career, although most of his value comes from his elite defense. In 2012, Bourjos’ last full season, he was the 11th best fielder according to FanGraphs’ total defense metric. Bourjos will likely be the Cardinals’ starting center fielder entering the 2014 season. The Cardinals also signed shortstop Jhonny Peralta, who is coming off a career year that was tarnished by a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). His 2013 season seemed to be driven by a number of unsustainable factors, like a .374 BABIP, a career low infield fly ball percentage, and the immeasurable effect the PEDs had on his production. The high BABIP and PEDs should, in theory, be absent in 2014, bringing his numbers back to their decent 2012 levels.
Third baseman Matt Carpenter posted 7.0 WAR and was a fan favorite last season. Much of his value was from a .318 AVG and a .392 OBP, which was driven by a .359 BABIP. While that should regress, he posted a high BABIP in a partial season last year, and had flashes of a high BABIP in the minors. It was also supported by a high LD% (sixth highest in the league), which also was present in 2012. Carpenter’s AVG should stay well above .300, and he should remain a runs scoring machine (126 in 2013, most in the league) as he leads off in one of the best lineups in baseball.
Pitcher Michael Wacha was the compensatory pick after the Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to free agency before the 2012 season, and after Wacha’s debut last season, it looks like the Cardinals made out pretty well. His change up was amazing, resulting in whiffs 20% of the time, and generating ground balls on 68% of balls in play. Opposing hitters hit .171 off the pitch last season, and it was especially effective against right handed hitters, who hit only .080. He paired this with his fastball that averaged roughly 94 mph last season, and showed the potential to be a stud in the future. However, he will likely be under an innings limit for the 2014 season and possibly the 2015 season as well.
X Factor – Shelby Miller
2013 was pitcher Shelby Miller’s first full season, and he performed well overall. In the first half of the season, he posted a 2.92 ERA and had a 9.63 K/9. It was a different story in the second half, as he posted a 3.26 ERA and saw his K/9 fall to 7.47. His control also worsened, as his BB/9 increased by roughly one walk in the second half. However, the Cardinals’ rotation is so deep that Miller will likely slot in as the #4 or #5 starter, and he has a lot of time for his pitches to develop because he is so young.
Pittsburgh Pirates
It was a monumental season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they reached the post season for the first time since 1992. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen was named the National League MVP, and Clint Hurdle was named Manager of the Year. However, similar to the Red Sox, they appear to have maximized their potential. They had WAR produced by surprising players, and according to ESPN’s expected win/loss record, they over-performed by about five wins. While they have some young players to build around, another 94 win season appears to be unlikely. This offseason, they lost A.J. Burnett to free agency, and he was the team’s highest-WAR producing pitcher in 2013. The team made no other significant moves, suggesting that they will be entering the season with a similar starting lineup to the 2013 season.
Pitcher Francisco Liriano had a great season in 2013, more than doubling his 2012 WAR. Much of his success can be attributed to his increased control and improved strand rate. Research has shown that strand rate greatly helps ERA. There is a clear correlation between Liriano’s strand rate, and his ERA, as seasons with a high strand rate have resulted in a low ERA for Liriano, and vice versa. He will need to keep his strand rate up to maintain this success, and his history shows that this is unlikely - he will probably post an ERA around 4.00 in 2014.
Third baseman Pedro Alvarez makes contact at a rate below league average, but when he does make contact, he pounds the ball, as he hit 36 home runs, and his ISO (isolated power) was among the best in the league. He is frequently a strikeout victim, as his strikeout rate was sixth highest in the league last season. Off-speed and breaking pitches hurt him most, as he whiffed roughly every other swing he took against those pitches. He has shown this high power, low AVG style of play throughout the minor leagues, so it appears unlikely to change, but he will be a staple in the heart of the Pirates lineup nonetheless.
X Factor – Starling Marte
Outfielder Starling Marte showed great speed in his first full major league season in 2013, stealing 41 bases and leading the league in Spd (speed rating). He posted a high BABIP in 2013 and throughout the minors, and his skillset indicates that it is sustainable. He hits half his balls in play on the ground, allowing him to utilize his above average speed to reach base on an infield hit roughly once every 10 ground balls. He posts a decent average, and essentially no power, so most of his value will come from his speed. If he can show that his high BABIP is sustainable in the major leagues, he can help the Pirates show that their 2013 season was not a fluke.
Cincinnati Reds
Similar to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Cincinnati Reds have a great balance of young and veteran players on their roster. They used this balance to reach the playoffs in 2013, and look to make another run in 2014. Veteran first baseman Joey Votto continues to demonstrate elite power and on base skills, and veteran outfielder Jay Bruce continues to have very consistent production. Outfielder Billy Hamilton’s debut is one of the most awaited in recent history, as he stole 165 bases over three levels in the minors during the 2012 season. Their rotation is very deep leading into the 2014 season, and is once again led by Johnny Cueto, who, when healthy, has managed to post a sub-3.00 ERA despite having relatively low strikeout totals. Perhaps the most exciting player in the rotation this season is Tony Cingrani, who in his first major league season recorded an ERA under 3.00 and had a double digit K/9, which is commendable at any stage of a pitchers’ career. The Reds lost outfielder Shin-Soo Choo this offseason, and his on base consistency will be missed. The lack of Choo in the lineup may result in a decrease in RBI for players who batted behind him like Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. Despite the loss of Choo, the depth of the rotation, development of young players, and introduction of Billy Hamilton should result in the Reds returning to the playoffs.
Tony Cingrani shined in his first MLB season, posting a 2.92 ERA and a 10.32 K/9, which would have been second in the league in 2013 had Cingrani pitched enough innings to qualify. His fastball usage was quite unique, as he threw his fastball 81.5% of the time. Common sense would suggest that hitters would catch up to his fastball and his tendencies next season, and this may be the case. However, as Bartolo Colon has done since 2005, it is possible to throw a fastball over 80% of the time and still see relative success. But, this leaves the pitcher more susceptible to “luck” aspects, such as BABIP and strand rate. However, Cingrani’s other pitches generate more ground balls than Colon’s, and they hold opposing hitters to a lower AVG. Cingrani should certainly see some regression and probably an innings limit in 2014, but should not regress as much as his high fastball usage may suggest.
First baseman Joey Votto has been the picture of consistency the past five seasons, posting a WAR over 4.5 in each, and over 6 in three of the five seasons. He consistently is among the league leaders in OBP (on base percentage), and has hit over 20 home runs in each full season except 2012, when he battled a knee injury. What differentiates him from other power hitting first baseman is his excellent batting eye that led to easily the highest walk rate in the league across all positions last season. His power numbers did decrease marginally, and this may be the sign of a slow decline, but the decline will be slow enough that he will still be among the league’s best for seasons to come.
X Factor – Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton set the minor league single season stolen base record in 2012, and word of his upcoming major league debut has sent analysts and fans alike projecting lofty steals numbers for the 2014 season. While there is no doubt that his speed is once-in-a-lifetime good, there is some worry about the rest of the of his offensive skills. Skepticism of a serviceable batting average and on base percentage is justified, and there is no comparison in the major leagues because of his unique skills. If he can get on base at a .300 rate (league average) it will be a huge help for the Reds, but it would not be surprising to see it dip down to .280, mitigating some of the value his speed presents.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers had a disappointing season on many levels in 2013. Their record dropped below .500, and Ryan Braun, their star outfielder, was suspended for 65 games after testing positive for PEDs. This occurred after he appealed a 50 games suspension in 2012, and professed his innocence. To add to this problematic season, the Brewers’ bullpen was largely ineffective as they converted only 63% of their save opportunities, and provided only 0.8 WAR as a whole. There were some bright spots, however. Outfielder Carlos Gomez emerged as one of baseball’s elite outfielders, and shortstop Jean Segura impressed in his first full major league season, showing elite speed and a high batting average, and modest power. The Brewers signed pitcher Matt Garza this offseason, and when healthy, he has proven to be a solid #2 starter. Still, questions remain around the rest of the lineup surrounding their three stars (Braun, Segura and Gomez), and whether their rotation will be effective enough to compete in a strong division.
Jean Segura was acquired from the Angels in a 2012 trade in which the Brewers sent ace pitcher Zack Greinke to Los Angeles for a handful of prospects, Segura included. Segura played very well in his first complete MLB season, batting .294, stealing 44 bases and adding 12 home runs. However, much of his success was in the first half of the season.
The reigning National League Champions look like one of the most interesting teams in baseball this season. They have a great balance of young players who have the potential to be studs, and veterans who are in the prime of their career. Third baseman Matt Carpenter, second baseman Kolten Wong, and first baseman Matt Adams are all projected to be starters, and are all under 28. Their pitching staff was better than league average in almost all categories, and on offense, they limited strikeouts as a team, which helped them produce the third most runs in the league. They had a moderately busy offseason, as they traded third baseman David Freese and reliever Fernando Salas to the Angels for outfielder Peter Bourjos and reliever Randal Grichuk. As explained in the American League West preview, Freese’s power breakout in 2012 appears to be a fluke because of his HR/FB%, and the large number of home runs that were just barely over the wall, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker. This deal seems to favor the Cardinals, as Bourjos has demonstrated a solid AVG and some speed potential throughout his career, although most of his value comes from his elite defense. In 2012, Bourjos’ last full season, he was the 11th best fielder according to FanGraphs’ total defense metric. Bourjos will likely be the Cardinals’ starting center fielder entering the 2014 season. The Cardinals also signed shortstop Jhonny Peralta, who is coming off a career year that was tarnished by a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). His 2013 season seemed to be driven by a number of unsustainable factors, like a .374 BABIP, a career low infield fly ball percentage, and the immeasurable effect the PEDs had on his production. The high BABIP and PEDs should, in theory, be absent in 2014, bringing his numbers back to their decent 2012 levels.
Third baseman Matt Carpenter posted 7.0 WAR and was a fan favorite last season. Much of his value was from a .318 AVG and a .392 OBP, which was driven by a .359 BABIP. While that should regress, he posted a high BABIP in a partial season last year, and had flashes of a high BABIP in the minors. It was also supported by a high LD% (sixth highest in the league), which also was present in 2012. Carpenter’s AVG should stay well above .300, and he should remain a runs scoring machine (126 in 2013, most in the league) as he leads off in one of the best lineups in baseball.
Pitcher Michael Wacha was the compensatory pick after the Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to free agency before the 2012 season, and after Wacha’s debut last season, it looks like the Cardinals made out pretty well. His change up was amazing, resulting in whiffs 20% of the time, and generating ground balls on 68% of balls in play. Opposing hitters hit .171 off the pitch last season, and it was especially effective against right handed hitters, who hit only .080. He paired this with his fastball that averaged roughly 94 mph last season, and showed the potential to be a stud in the future. However, he will likely be under an innings limit for the 2014 season and possibly the 2015 season as well.
X Factor – Shelby Miller
2013 was pitcher Shelby Miller’s first full season, and he performed well overall. In the first half of the season, he posted a 2.92 ERA and had a 9.63 K/9. It was a different story in the second half, as he posted a 3.26 ERA and saw his K/9 fall to 7.47. His control also worsened, as his BB/9 increased by roughly one walk in the second half. However, the Cardinals’ rotation is so deep that Miller will likely slot in as the #4 or #5 starter, and he has a lot of time for his pitches to develop because he is so young.
Pittsburgh Pirates
It was a monumental season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they reached the post season for the first time since 1992. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen was named the National League MVP, and Clint Hurdle was named Manager of the Year. However, similar to the Red Sox, they appear to have maximized their potential. They had WAR produced by surprising players, and according to ESPN’s expected win/loss record, they over-performed by about five wins. While they have some young players to build around, another 94 win season appears to be unlikely. This offseason, they lost A.J. Burnett to free agency, and he was the team’s highest-WAR producing pitcher in 2013. The team made no other significant moves, suggesting that they will be entering the season with a similar starting lineup to the 2013 season.
Pitcher Francisco Liriano had a great season in 2013, more than doubling his 2012 WAR. Much of his success can be attributed to his increased control and improved strand rate. Research has shown that strand rate greatly helps ERA. There is a clear correlation between Liriano’s strand rate, and his ERA, as seasons with a high strand rate have resulted in a low ERA for Liriano, and vice versa. He will need to keep his strand rate up to maintain this success, and his history shows that this is unlikely - he will probably post an ERA around 4.00 in 2014.
Third baseman Pedro Alvarez makes contact at a rate below league average, but when he does make contact, he pounds the ball, as he hit 36 home runs, and his ISO (isolated power) was among the best in the league. He is frequently a strikeout victim, as his strikeout rate was sixth highest in the league last season. Off-speed and breaking pitches hurt him most, as he whiffed roughly every other swing he took against those pitches. He has shown this high power, low AVG style of play throughout the minor leagues, so it appears unlikely to change, but he will be a staple in the heart of the Pirates lineup nonetheless.
X Factor – Starling Marte
Outfielder Starling Marte showed great speed in his first full major league season in 2013, stealing 41 bases and leading the league in Spd (speed rating). He posted a high BABIP in 2013 and throughout the minors, and his skillset indicates that it is sustainable. He hits half his balls in play on the ground, allowing him to utilize his above average speed to reach base on an infield hit roughly once every 10 ground balls. He posts a decent average, and essentially no power, so most of his value will come from his speed. If he can show that his high BABIP is sustainable in the major leagues, he can help the Pirates show that their 2013 season was not a fluke.
Cincinnati Reds
Similar to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Cincinnati Reds have a great balance of young and veteran players on their roster. They used this balance to reach the playoffs in 2013, and look to make another run in 2014. Veteran first baseman Joey Votto continues to demonstrate elite power and on base skills, and veteran outfielder Jay Bruce continues to have very consistent production. Outfielder Billy Hamilton’s debut is one of the most awaited in recent history, as he stole 165 bases over three levels in the minors during the 2012 season. Their rotation is very deep leading into the 2014 season, and is once again led by Johnny Cueto, who, when healthy, has managed to post a sub-3.00 ERA despite having relatively low strikeout totals. Perhaps the most exciting player in the rotation this season is Tony Cingrani, who in his first major league season recorded an ERA under 3.00 and had a double digit K/9, which is commendable at any stage of a pitchers’ career. The Reds lost outfielder Shin-Soo Choo this offseason, and his on base consistency will be missed. The lack of Choo in the lineup may result in a decrease in RBI for players who batted behind him like Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. Despite the loss of Choo, the depth of the rotation, development of young players, and introduction of Billy Hamilton should result in the Reds returning to the playoffs.
Tony Cingrani shined in his first MLB season, posting a 2.92 ERA and a 10.32 K/9, which would have been second in the league in 2013 had Cingrani pitched enough innings to qualify. His fastball usage was quite unique, as he threw his fastball 81.5% of the time. Common sense would suggest that hitters would catch up to his fastball and his tendencies next season, and this may be the case. However, as Bartolo Colon has done since 2005, it is possible to throw a fastball over 80% of the time and still see relative success. But, this leaves the pitcher more susceptible to “luck” aspects, such as BABIP and strand rate. However, Cingrani’s other pitches generate more ground balls than Colon’s, and they hold opposing hitters to a lower AVG. Cingrani should certainly see some regression and probably an innings limit in 2014, but should not regress as much as his high fastball usage may suggest.
First baseman Joey Votto has been the picture of consistency the past five seasons, posting a WAR over 4.5 in each, and over 6 in three of the five seasons. He consistently is among the league leaders in OBP (on base percentage), and has hit over 20 home runs in each full season except 2012, when he battled a knee injury. What differentiates him from other power hitting first baseman is his excellent batting eye that led to easily the highest walk rate in the league across all positions last season. His power numbers did decrease marginally, and this may be the sign of a slow decline, but the decline will be slow enough that he will still be among the league’s best for seasons to come.
X Factor – Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton set the minor league single season stolen base record in 2012, and word of his upcoming major league debut has sent analysts and fans alike projecting lofty steals numbers for the 2014 season. While there is no doubt that his speed is once-in-a-lifetime good, there is some worry about the rest of the of his offensive skills. Skepticism of a serviceable batting average and on base percentage is justified, and there is no comparison in the major leagues because of his unique skills. If he can get on base at a .300 rate (league average) it will be a huge help for the Reds, but it would not be surprising to see it dip down to .280, mitigating some of the value his speed presents.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers had a disappointing season on many levels in 2013. Their record dropped below .500, and Ryan Braun, their star outfielder, was suspended for 65 games after testing positive for PEDs. This occurred after he appealed a 50 games suspension in 2012, and professed his innocence. To add to this problematic season, the Brewers’ bullpen was largely ineffective as they converted only 63% of their save opportunities, and provided only 0.8 WAR as a whole. There were some bright spots, however. Outfielder Carlos Gomez emerged as one of baseball’s elite outfielders, and shortstop Jean Segura impressed in his first full major league season, showing elite speed and a high batting average, and modest power. The Brewers signed pitcher Matt Garza this offseason, and when healthy, he has proven to be a solid #2 starter. Still, questions remain around the rest of the lineup surrounding their three stars (Braun, Segura and Gomez), and whether their rotation will be effective enough to compete in a strong division.
Jean Segura was acquired from the Angels in a 2012 trade in which the Brewers sent ace pitcher Zack Greinke to Los Angeles for a handful of prospects, Segura included. Segura played very well in his first complete MLB season, batting .294, stealing 44 bases and adding 12 home runs. However, much of his success was in the first half of the season.
Looking at per pitch data, it is clear that Segura struggled with off-speed pitches in the second half. Of all of the off-speed pitches that he swung at in the first half, he swung and missed at 8.93% of them. In the second half, he missed 30.77% of the off-speed pitches he swung at. He also posted a BABIP that was high relative to his LD%, so his BABIP should decline in 2014, bringing his AVG down with it. However, he has shown that the speed is legitimate, and any power he provides is simply a bonus. His true performance against off-speed pitches seems to lie somewhere in the middle between statistics from the first half and the second half of 2013, and this area will be critical to his long term success.
Pitcher Yovani Gallardo had been the picture of consistency before the 2013 season. Dating back to 2007, his ERA had not fluctuated more than 0.32 in seasons with more than 100 innings. However, that trend was broken in 2013. His ERA increased to 4.18, and he lost almost two strikeouts per nine innings. The main differences in other statistics between 2013 and the rest of his career was a significant drop in his strand rate and velocity. History has shown that a sudden velocity drop may be a cause for concern – see C.C. Sabathia in 2013 – but there may be more to blame than velocity. His strand rate was a serious outlier when compared to his career, and generally strand rates will regress to league averages. However, high strikeout pitchers tend to be able to maintain higher strand rates because they can more effectively pitch their way out of jams. Gallardo had been a high strikeout pitcher, but the strikeouts had decreased in 2013. This can help explain the decrease in strand rate. Furthermore, hitters put more balls in play against all his pitches in 2013, which is a plausible result of his decreased velocity. According to an article by Bill Petti from FanGraphs, pitchers who lose more than one mph of velocity in one season have a low chance of regaining that velocity the next season. This suggests that Gallardo is unlikely to regain his previous success in the long run, but small sample size and relatively random events may result in some success in 2014, but is not likely sustainable.
X Factor – Ryan Braun
After his 2013 season was tarnished by PEDs, Braun has a lot to prove in 2014. His production was already down in 2013 before the suspension, and because of the immeasurable effect the PEDs had on his performance, projecting his 2014 season will be very challenging. This is situation is also difficult because it is unknown when he started and stopped taking PEDs, hiding his “true” performance. Regardless, he will need to prove his true skill to everyone in the baseball community, and the Brewers need him to rebound to have any sort of success in 2014.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have not won the World Series in 105 years, which is the longest drought in Major League Baseball history. They certainly have had chances, losing in the championship eight times in that 105 year span, and winning the division three times in the past 11 seasons. Entering the 2014 season, they have a roster that features many young, high potential players. However, they do not have star players to complement them, and have not had success, possibly deterring big name free agents from signing. Until some of these young players develop into pieces to build around, the Cubs will most likely not see long term success.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo had a disappointing 2013 season, as he hit only for a .233 AVG after showing much more potential in the minors. This was driven by a low BABIP, which is not supported by his league average LD%. His power was solid, however, and a relatively low HR/FB% indicates that he has the potential for more. He should breakout in 2014, and be an integral part of Cubs’ teams going forward.
X Factor – Jeff Samardzija
Pitcher Jeff Samardzija could not follow up a breakout 2012 season in 2013, as his ERA and walks reverted to pre-2012 levels. The main issue seemed to be his cutter which was league average in 2012, but performed very poorly in 2013. Samardzija is slotted to lead the Cubs’ rotation in 2014, and will need to rebound to help the Cubs in the short term, but also to rebound for the possibility of him being a building piece for the future.
Pitcher Yovani Gallardo had been the picture of consistency before the 2013 season. Dating back to 2007, his ERA had not fluctuated more than 0.32 in seasons with more than 100 innings. However, that trend was broken in 2013. His ERA increased to 4.18, and he lost almost two strikeouts per nine innings. The main differences in other statistics between 2013 and the rest of his career was a significant drop in his strand rate and velocity. History has shown that a sudden velocity drop may be a cause for concern – see C.C. Sabathia in 2013 – but there may be more to blame than velocity. His strand rate was a serious outlier when compared to his career, and generally strand rates will regress to league averages. However, high strikeout pitchers tend to be able to maintain higher strand rates because they can more effectively pitch their way out of jams. Gallardo had been a high strikeout pitcher, but the strikeouts had decreased in 2013. This can help explain the decrease in strand rate. Furthermore, hitters put more balls in play against all his pitches in 2013, which is a plausible result of his decreased velocity. According to an article by Bill Petti from FanGraphs, pitchers who lose more than one mph of velocity in one season have a low chance of regaining that velocity the next season. This suggests that Gallardo is unlikely to regain his previous success in the long run, but small sample size and relatively random events may result in some success in 2014, but is not likely sustainable.
X Factor – Ryan Braun
After his 2013 season was tarnished by PEDs, Braun has a lot to prove in 2014. His production was already down in 2013 before the suspension, and because of the immeasurable effect the PEDs had on his performance, projecting his 2014 season will be very challenging. This is situation is also difficult because it is unknown when he started and stopped taking PEDs, hiding his “true” performance. Regardless, he will need to prove his true skill to everyone in the baseball community, and the Brewers need him to rebound to have any sort of success in 2014.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have not won the World Series in 105 years, which is the longest drought in Major League Baseball history. They certainly have had chances, losing in the championship eight times in that 105 year span, and winning the division three times in the past 11 seasons. Entering the 2014 season, they have a roster that features many young, high potential players. However, they do not have star players to complement them, and have not had success, possibly deterring big name free agents from signing. Until some of these young players develop into pieces to build around, the Cubs will most likely not see long term success.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo had a disappointing 2013 season, as he hit only for a .233 AVG after showing much more potential in the minors. This was driven by a low BABIP, which is not supported by his league average LD%. His power was solid, however, and a relatively low HR/FB% indicates that he has the potential for more. He should breakout in 2014, and be an integral part of Cubs’ teams going forward.
X Factor – Jeff Samardzija
Pitcher Jeff Samardzija could not follow up a breakout 2012 season in 2013, as his ERA and walks reverted to pre-2012 levels. The main issue seemed to be his cutter which was league average in 2012, but performed very poorly in 2013. Samardzija is slotted to lead the Cubs’ rotation in 2014, and will need to rebound to help the Cubs in the short term, but also to rebound for the possibility of him being a building piece for the future.