Shin-Soo Choo
2013 Team: Cincinnati Reds
2014 Team: Texas Rangers
Contract: 7 Years / $130 million
After being traded from the Indians to the Reds in December of 2012, Choo is on the move again, signing with Texas for seven years. 2013 was Choo’s best season to date, with a .432 OBP, good for fourth highest in the league. However, his .285 batting average was low for an OBP that high. In fact, of the players with the 20 highest OBPs, only three had an AVG under .300, with Choo being the only one in the top 17 players.
This anomaly can be explained by Choo’s ratio of pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). Using P/PA as a leading indicator for other statistics was started by Paul Petera, whose findings have been published in Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. Petera has found that players who see more pitches each plate appearance tend to have high OBP but low AVG. A chart with his findings is shown below. While this is just a correlation between statistics, a possible explanation for the correlation is that as a player sees more pitches, the probability of a walk increases, while the probability of a hit remains generally unchanged. However, the probability of a strike out also increases as more pitches are seen, which would keep the AVG low.
2014 Team: Texas Rangers
Contract: 7 Years / $130 million
After being traded from the Indians to the Reds in December of 2012, Choo is on the move again, signing with Texas for seven years. 2013 was Choo’s best season to date, with a .432 OBP, good for fourth highest in the league. However, his .285 batting average was low for an OBP that high. In fact, of the players with the 20 highest OBPs, only three had an AVG under .300, with Choo being the only one in the top 17 players.
This anomaly can be explained by Choo’s ratio of pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). Using P/PA as a leading indicator for other statistics was started by Paul Petera, whose findings have been published in Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. Petera has found that players who see more pitches each plate appearance tend to have high OBP but low AVG. A chart with his findings is shown below. While this is just a correlation between statistics, a possible explanation for the correlation is that as a player sees more pitches, the probability of a walk increases, while the probability of a hit remains generally unchanged. However, the probability of a strike out also increases as more pitches are seen, which would keep the AVG low.
Choo's career numbers are compared with his P/PA below.
As Choo sees more pitches per plate appearance, his OBP rises, while his AVG steadily declines. This means that his AVG is very unlikely to climb back into the .300s without a reversal of his P/PA trend. It also means that his AVG may continue to decline even if his P/PA stabilizes because of the difference between Choo’s .285 AVG and Petera’s .264 projected AVG. Choo would have to develop major issues for his AVG to fall that low, because Petera’s findings are based off of the entire league. Choo is an above average hitter whose “floor” AVG is higher than the league average AVG.
Last season, Choo also experienced an increase in his home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB). Each player creates their own HR/FB baseline, and after an increase or decrease in one season, the following season most often results in a regression to the mean. Choo’s home runs increased from 16 to 21 from 2012 to 2013, and that was paired with an increase in his HR/FB from 13.2 in 2012 to 16.4 in 2013. As it regresses next season, Choo should see a small decrease in home runs.
What does this all mean?
Choo will continue to have a very high OBP and a relatively low AVG, but will be a good option for the Rangers at the top of their order. He stole 20 bases last season, albeit at a relatively low success rate (20/31 - 64.5%). However, he consistently struggles against left handed pitching, batting .317 against righties and .215 against lefties.
The Rangers overpaid for Choo, but since they are not interested in resigning Nelson Cruz, and have added pieces that make them appear that they are poised for a playoff run, they needed to find a strong player to fill an outfield spot. This signing looks economically bad long-term; the Rangers are playing an above average player almost-elite player money. Also, his contract is back loaded, so the Rangers are going to be paying a large amount of money to someone who projects as a platoon player in the twilight of his career. While the administration would not have known then, for the same amount of money they could have signed both Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, who signed for $85 million and $30 million, respectively. Choo is a good player, but not worth the financial equivalent of two everyday players.
Last season, Choo also experienced an increase in his home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB). Each player creates their own HR/FB baseline, and after an increase or decrease in one season, the following season most often results in a regression to the mean. Choo’s home runs increased from 16 to 21 from 2012 to 2013, and that was paired with an increase in his HR/FB from 13.2 in 2012 to 16.4 in 2013. As it regresses next season, Choo should see a small decrease in home runs.
What does this all mean?
Choo will continue to have a very high OBP and a relatively low AVG, but will be a good option for the Rangers at the top of their order. He stole 20 bases last season, albeit at a relatively low success rate (20/31 - 64.5%). However, he consistently struggles against left handed pitching, batting .317 against righties and .215 against lefties.
The Rangers overpaid for Choo, but since they are not interested in resigning Nelson Cruz, and have added pieces that make them appear that they are poised for a playoff run, they needed to find a strong player to fill an outfield spot. This signing looks economically bad long-term; the Rangers are playing an above average player almost-elite player money. Also, his contract is back loaded, so the Rangers are going to be paying a large amount of money to someone who projects as a platoon player in the twilight of his career. While the administration would not have known then, for the same amount of money they could have signed both Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, who signed for $85 million and $30 million, respectively. Choo is a good player, but not worth the financial equivalent of two everyday players.