Offseason Moves
Brian McCann
2013 Team: Atlanta Braves
2014 Team: New York Yankees
Contract: 5 years / $85 million, $15 million option for sixth year
Brian McCann provides an offensive upgrade for the Yankees, as Chris Stewart and Austin Romine split time behind the plate last season and batted a paltry .211 and .207, respectively, and provided minimal power. McCann is a six time all star who has hit over 20 home runs in seven of his last eight seasons and has batted .270 or better in six of his eight seasons. However, McCann has been below league average according to FanGraphs’ defensive metrics, while Stewart has been consistently above league average. While defense will be downgraded, the offensive upgrade at catcher greatly out weighs it. McCann’s statistics should also improve because of the short fence in right field, and McCann’s nature to pull the ball. The overlay between Turner Field (McCann’s home field in Atlanta) and Yankee Stadium is show below.
2013 Team: Atlanta Braves
2014 Team: New York Yankees
Contract: 5 years / $85 million, $15 million option for sixth year
Brian McCann provides an offensive upgrade for the Yankees, as Chris Stewart and Austin Romine split time behind the plate last season and batted a paltry .211 and .207, respectively, and provided minimal power. McCann is a six time all star who has hit over 20 home runs in seven of his last eight seasons and has batted .270 or better in six of his eight seasons. However, McCann has been below league average according to FanGraphs’ defensive metrics, while Stewart has been consistently above league average. While defense will be downgraded, the offensive upgrade at catcher greatly out weighs it. McCann’s statistics should also improve because of the short fence in right field, and McCann’s nature to pull the ball. The overlay between Turner Field (McCann’s home field in Atlanta) and Yankee Stadium is show below.
The difference between the fences is big enough that McCann would have had two or three more home runs last season at home had he been playing at Yankee Stadium instead of Turner Field. Additionally, there may have been outs that now would go off the wall or became harder to play in Yankee Stadium, which would also benefit McCann. This transactions also shows that the Yankees are not going to be fiscally conservative this offseason, and instead are going to try to make a run at a championship.
Dan Haren
2013 Team: Washington Nationals
2014 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract: 1 Year / $10 million
In Dan Haren, the Dodgers get rotation depth and a strong pitcher for relatively little money. Haren finished last season strong after going on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation on June 23. In the first half of the season, Haren had an ERA of 5.61, a WHIP of 1.42 and 7.8 K/9. In the second half of the season, Haren had a 3.52 ERA, a WHIP of 1.02 and 8.2 K/9. However, last year Haren’s division, the NL East, had the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins, who had the third-lowest and lowest team batting averages in the league last year, respectively. In fact, all the teams in his division had batting averages under the league average of .253. In the NL West, Haren’s new division, three of the four other teams had above average batting averages. This may increase his ERA and WHIP marginally, but for only $10 million the Dodgers will satisfied if he continues posting numbers close to what he did during the second half of the 2013 season.
Ricky Nolasco
2013 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers / Miami Marlins
2014 Team: Minnesota Twins
Contract: 4 Years / $49 million
After a brief stint with the Dodgers, Nolasco received a 4 year / $49 million contract from the Twins. Last season was his first season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2008. However, Nolasco’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) has not been in agreement with his ERA. This stems from his low strand rate. In 2013, Nolasco stranded 70.9% of his runners, and there were 43 MLB pitchers last season who had a strand rate higher than Nolasco. The root of the low strand rate is that opposing batters’ batting averages jump from .259 with the bases empty to .272 with men on base in his career. This is a critical issue for Nolasco, and if the trend continues, the Twins may be paying a pitcher big money for below average results.
Jhonny Peralta
2013 Team: Detroit Tigers
2014 Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Contract: 4 Years / $52 million
After trading David Freese, the Cardinals had money to spend, and with it they signed Jhonny Peralta, who is coming off of a 50 game suspension for PED use. Peralta has essentially had two great seasons - 2013 and 2011 - and the rest were unspectacular. His career high .303 batting average was fueled by a .375 BABIP (“Batting Average On Balls In Play”: .300 is average), much higher than his .315 career BABIP. He also posted a career high in strikeout percentage, 4% higher than in 2012. His 2013 numbers can be thrown out - they were affected by PEDs in immeasurable ways, and the results may not be repeated. In 2011, his .299 batting average was also driven by a high .325 BABIP, but that season was his best from a peripheral statistic point of view. Peralta had a career low 16.5% strikeout percentage, and had a .179 ISO (“Isolated Power”: .145 is average). However, his numbers declined again in 2012, and numbers similar to his 2012 season can be expected again in 2014.
Dan Haren
2013 Team: Washington Nationals
2014 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract: 1 Year / $10 million
In Dan Haren, the Dodgers get rotation depth and a strong pitcher for relatively little money. Haren finished last season strong after going on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation on June 23. In the first half of the season, Haren had an ERA of 5.61, a WHIP of 1.42 and 7.8 K/9. In the second half of the season, Haren had a 3.52 ERA, a WHIP of 1.02 and 8.2 K/9. However, last year Haren’s division, the NL East, had the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins, who had the third-lowest and lowest team batting averages in the league last year, respectively. In fact, all the teams in his division had batting averages under the league average of .253. In the NL West, Haren’s new division, three of the four other teams had above average batting averages. This may increase his ERA and WHIP marginally, but for only $10 million the Dodgers will satisfied if he continues posting numbers close to what he did during the second half of the 2013 season.
Ricky Nolasco
2013 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers / Miami Marlins
2014 Team: Minnesota Twins
Contract: 4 Years / $49 million
After a brief stint with the Dodgers, Nolasco received a 4 year / $49 million contract from the Twins. Last season was his first season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2008. However, Nolasco’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) has not been in agreement with his ERA. This stems from his low strand rate. In 2013, Nolasco stranded 70.9% of his runners, and there were 43 MLB pitchers last season who had a strand rate higher than Nolasco. The root of the low strand rate is that opposing batters’ batting averages jump from .259 with the bases empty to .272 with men on base in his career. This is a critical issue for Nolasco, and if the trend continues, the Twins may be paying a pitcher big money for below average results.
Jhonny Peralta
2013 Team: Detroit Tigers
2014 Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Contract: 4 Years / $52 million
After trading David Freese, the Cardinals had money to spend, and with it they signed Jhonny Peralta, who is coming off of a 50 game suspension for PED use. Peralta has essentially had two great seasons - 2013 and 2011 - and the rest were unspectacular. His career high .303 batting average was fueled by a .375 BABIP (“Batting Average On Balls In Play”: .300 is average), much higher than his .315 career BABIP. He also posted a career high in strikeout percentage, 4% higher than in 2012. His 2013 numbers can be thrown out - they were affected by PEDs in immeasurable ways, and the results may not be repeated. In 2011, his .299 batting average was also driven by a high .325 BABIP, but that season was his best from a peripheral statistic point of view. Peralta had a career low 16.5% strikeout percentage, and had a .179 ISO (“Isolated Power”: .145 is average). However, his numbers declined again in 2012, and numbers similar to his 2012 season can be expected again in 2014.