AL West Preview
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland A’s have averaged 95 wins in the past two seasons, a stark difference from the 76.2 wins per season they averaged in the previous five. Much of their offensive success last season can be credited to their strong balance of high team power numbers and a high team on base percentage. They had the third highest ISO in the league, and paired that with the eighth highest OBP to finish fourth in the league in runs scored. Their pitching staff was solid as well, having a team ERA that was better than league average, but was often victimized by home runs. Their biggest addition was signing Scott Kazmir, who resurrected his career in 2013 with the Cleveland Indians. After not pitching since 2011, Kazmir made 29 starts and posted an ERA of 4.04. His velocity had been decreasing 2007-2011, but he regained the lost speed in 2013, and saw an increase in velocity in each of his pitches. Whether this was because he was well rested from almost two seasons off, or a mechanical change, is yet to be seen, but Kazmir is only 30, and can produce middle-of-the-rotation numbers for the A’s in 2014. While this addition gives them significant depth, Oakland lost Bartolo Colon, who at the ripe age of 40 led Oakland’s pitchers with a 3.9 WAR. They still have many skilled, young pitchers like Dan Straily, Jarrod Parker, and Sonny Gray who all could lead the rotation this season.
In 2013, Josh Donaldson had his much-anticipated breakout, batting .301, adding 24 home runs, and posting a 7.7 WAR. After being acquired as a throw-in piece in a trade with the Chicago Cubs in 2008, Donaldson struggled against advanced pitching in the upper minors, but put it all together in 2012 at Triple-A and earned a promotion to the majors later that year. His numbers were good, but uninspiring in 2012, as his K% ballooned and his BB% dropped. However he corrected that in 2013, and excelled. He slipped a little in the second half of the season, seeing his AVG fall because of a decrease in both his line drive percentage and his HR/FB rate. A further cause for concern is his high BABIP, which is not supported by his LD%. It increased significantly from 2012 to 2013, and did not have a track record of a consistently high BABIP in the minors. This will regress in 2014, bringing his AVG down with it. However, the power is legitimate, and he will be an integral part in the A’s current and future teams.
Dan Straily, a right handed pitcher for the A’s, debuted in 2012 and had disappointing results. In a small sample size, he struggled to limit home runs, and while he had a 3.89 ERA, he had a 6.48 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which suggests that his ERA should have been much higher. In 2013, his ERA was marginally worse, but his FIP suggests that his peripheral numbers improved. However, he generated ground balls at a rate much lower than league average, and allowed fly balls at a rate much higher than league average. This explains his susceptibility to home runs, and indicates that his performance ceiling may be limited. He remains one of the organization’s top prospects, but may not be the ace that his minor league numbers forecasted.
X Factor – Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray was called up in 2013, and dominated in 64 innings of work. He averaged 9.42 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), and held right handed hitters to a .194 AVG. He is slotted as the A’s third pitcher in 2014. If he can continue this elite strikeout rate, he can move toward the front of the A’s starting rotation, and will limit the damage caused by the loss of Bartolo Colon.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had a disappointing 2013 season, as the star studded line-up featuring Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, and Mike Trout finished third in the division, 18 games out of first place. Their offense was above league average in many categories, but poor pitching was their main issue. They had the sixth worst team ERA in the league, and had the fourth highest walk rate in the league. They attempted to address this issue through a trade with the Diamondbacks and White Sox, where they traded first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo and pitcher AJ Schugel for pitchers Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. Hector Santiago was a decent pitcher in his first full major league season in 2013. He outperformed his FIP by roughly one run and struggled with control, but posted a very strong 8.28 K/9. He offers a full arsenal of pitches, but struggles to draw swings on pitches outside the strike zone. He will be an innings-eater pitcher for the Angels, but is young enough that he may develop into something more. Tyler Skaggs is only 23, and while he struggled in his major league debut last season, has plenty of time to maximize his potential. In addition to this trade, the Angels sent outfielders Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk to St. Louis for third baseman David Freese and pitcher Fernando Salas. Freese, the biggest name in the deal, is coming off of a disappointing 2013 season, where his AVG and home runs fell significantly. While the Angels improved their rotation from a personnel standpoint, they will need better production from ace Jared Weaver and C.J.Wilson to have a shot at the playoffs.
David Freese seemed to have established himself as a player who can produce above average home runs while also hitting for a solid AVG during his first three full MLB seasons. However, that trend did not continue into 2013. His average dropped from .293 in 2012 to .262 in 2013, and his home runs fell from 20 to 9. His early AVG success may have been driven by a BABIP that was above .350 in each of those seasons. His BABIP decreased to .320 in 2013, and while this is still above league average, it was a significant drop for Freese. His LD% decreased with his BABIP, legitimizing the decrease. Furthermore, the power outage is supported by a decrease in his HR/FB%. As referenced in a previous article, each player establishes their own HR/FB%, and an increase or decrease in one or two seasons is often followed by regression to the player’s average. The league average HR/FB% is around 10.5% each season.
The Oakland A’s have averaged 95 wins in the past two seasons, a stark difference from the 76.2 wins per season they averaged in the previous five. Much of their offensive success last season can be credited to their strong balance of high team power numbers and a high team on base percentage. They had the third highest ISO in the league, and paired that with the eighth highest OBP to finish fourth in the league in runs scored. Their pitching staff was solid as well, having a team ERA that was better than league average, but was often victimized by home runs. Their biggest addition was signing Scott Kazmir, who resurrected his career in 2013 with the Cleveland Indians. After not pitching since 2011, Kazmir made 29 starts and posted an ERA of 4.04. His velocity had been decreasing 2007-2011, but he regained the lost speed in 2013, and saw an increase in velocity in each of his pitches. Whether this was because he was well rested from almost two seasons off, or a mechanical change, is yet to be seen, but Kazmir is only 30, and can produce middle-of-the-rotation numbers for the A’s in 2014. While this addition gives them significant depth, Oakland lost Bartolo Colon, who at the ripe age of 40 led Oakland’s pitchers with a 3.9 WAR. They still have many skilled, young pitchers like Dan Straily, Jarrod Parker, and Sonny Gray who all could lead the rotation this season.
In 2013, Josh Donaldson had his much-anticipated breakout, batting .301, adding 24 home runs, and posting a 7.7 WAR. After being acquired as a throw-in piece in a trade with the Chicago Cubs in 2008, Donaldson struggled against advanced pitching in the upper minors, but put it all together in 2012 at Triple-A and earned a promotion to the majors later that year. His numbers were good, but uninspiring in 2012, as his K% ballooned and his BB% dropped. However he corrected that in 2013, and excelled. He slipped a little in the second half of the season, seeing his AVG fall because of a decrease in both his line drive percentage and his HR/FB rate. A further cause for concern is his high BABIP, which is not supported by his LD%. It increased significantly from 2012 to 2013, and did not have a track record of a consistently high BABIP in the minors. This will regress in 2014, bringing his AVG down with it. However, the power is legitimate, and he will be an integral part in the A’s current and future teams.
Dan Straily, a right handed pitcher for the A’s, debuted in 2012 and had disappointing results. In a small sample size, he struggled to limit home runs, and while he had a 3.89 ERA, he had a 6.48 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which suggests that his ERA should have been much higher. In 2013, his ERA was marginally worse, but his FIP suggests that his peripheral numbers improved. However, he generated ground balls at a rate much lower than league average, and allowed fly balls at a rate much higher than league average. This explains his susceptibility to home runs, and indicates that his performance ceiling may be limited. He remains one of the organization’s top prospects, but may not be the ace that his minor league numbers forecasted.
X Factor – Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray was called up in 2013, and dominated in 64 innings of work. He averaged 9.42 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), and held right handed hitters to a .194 AVG. He is slotted as the A’s third pitcher in 2014. If he can continue this elite strikeout rate, he can move toward the front of the A’s starting rotation, and will limit the damage caused by the loss of Bartolo Colon.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had a disappointing 2013 season, as the star studded line-up featuring Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, and Mike Trout finished third in the division, 18 games out of first place. Their offense was above league average in many categories, but poor pitching was their main issue. They had the sixth worst team ERA in the league, and had the fourth highest walk rate in the league. They attempted to address this issue through a trade with the Diamondbacks and White Sox, where they traded first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo and pitcher AJ Schugel for pitchers Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. Hector Santiago was a decent pitcher in his first full major league season in 2013. He outperformed his FIP by roughly one run and struggled with control, but posted a very strong 8.28 K/9. He offers a full arsenal of pitches, but struggles to draw swings on pitches outside the strike zone. He will be an innings-eater pitcher for the Angels, but is young enough that he may develop into something more. Tyler Skaggs is only 23, and while he struggled in his major league debut last season, has plenty of time to maximize his potential. In addition to this trade, the Angels sent outfielders Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk to St. Louis for third baseman David Freese and pitcher Fernando Salas. Freese, the biggest name in the deal, is coming off of a disappointing 2013 season, where his AVG and home runs fell significantly. While the Angels improved their rotation from a personnel standpoint, they will need better production from ace Jared Weaver and C.J.Wilson to have a shot at the playoffs.
David Freese seemed to have established himself as a player who can produce above average home runs while also hitting for a solid AVG during his first three full MLB seasons. However, that trend did not continue into 2013. His average dropped from .293 in 2012 to .262 in 2013, and his home runs fell from 20 to 9. His early AVG success may have been driven by a BABIP that was above .350 in each of those seasons. His BABIP decreased to .320 in 2013, and while this is still above league average, it was a significant drop for Freese. His LD% decreased with his BABIP, legitimizing the decrease. Furthermore, the power outage is supported by a decrease in his HR/FB%. As referenced in a previous article, each player establishes their own HR/FB%, and an increase or decrease in one or two seasons is often followed by regression to the player’s average. The league average HR/FB% is around 10.5% each season.
It appears that Freese’s power increases in 2011 and 2012 can be attributed to an enormous HR/FB%, and the decrease in power is a result of a regression to the league average. Further evidence of a power decrease is seen when looking at his home runs distances, per ESPN Hit Tracker. Home runs are divided into four categories (from the Hit Tracker website):
Freese had a large percentage of his home runs be “just enough” in 2011 and 2012 seasons, indicating that a small change in skill or a different park could change those home runs into doubles or outs. Furthermore, the absence of “no doubt” home runs suggests that Freese’s power skills may not be as majestic as his 20 home runs season may indicate. The home run and batting average decreases appear to be a true representation of Freese’s skill, and will hurt his value and the Angels’ lineup in 2014.
The Angels signed outfielder Josh Hamilton to a five year, $125 million contract before the start of the 2013 season. Hamilton had just posted career highs in home runs and Runs Batted In during the 2013 season, but he was a huge disappointment in his first season with the Angels. His AVG fell from .285 to .250, and his home runs fell from 43 to 21. It was clear going into the 2013 season that his home run total from 2012 was not going to repeat – his HR/FB% was 25.6%, which was second highest in the league, and was a 9.2% increase from 2011. However, his HR/FB% dropped to 12.7%, the lowest in his career over a full season, which helps explain the decrease in home runs. The biggest issue with Hamilton seems to be his plate discipline. Over his career, his already below average plate discipline has been getting worse. Three particularly worrisome areas are his swinging strike percentage (percentage of times he swings and misses), his swing rate on pitches outside the zone, and his overall contact rate.
The Angels signed outfielder Josh Hamilton to a five year, $125 million contract before the start of the 2013 season. Hamilton had just posted career highs in home runs and Runs Batted In during the 2013 season, but he was a huge disappointment in his first season with the Angels. His AVG fell from .285 to .250, and his home runs fell from 43 to 21. It was clear going into the 2013 season that his home run total from 2012 was not going to repeat – his HR/FB% was 25.6%, which was second highest in the league, and was a 9.2% increase from 2011. However, his HR/FB% dropped to 12.7%, the lowest in his career over a full season, which helps explain the decrease in home runs. The biggest issue with Hamilton seems to be his plate discipline. Over his career, his already below average plate discipline has been getting worse. Three particularly worrisome areas are his swinging strike percentage (percentage of times he swings and misses), his swing rate on pitches outside the zone, and his overall contact rate.
While his power should stay consistent with 2013, his AVG will continue to drop because of a poor batting eye. While it was assumed that Hamilton would be past his prime at the end of his contract, he may be well past his prime throughout its entirety.
X Factor – C.J. Wilson
Pitcher C.J. Wilson was signed by the Angels in December of 2011 to a five year, $77.5 million contract. His performance in his first seasons as an Angel was relatively disappointing. In 2011, as a member of the Texas Rangers, he finished the season with a 2.94 ERA and 5.4 WAR. He has not been able to get back to those levels, although he was very close in 2013. His 2013 FIP was only 27 points higher than his 2011 FIP, and his K/9 was close to 8 in both seasons. He hasn’t been able to keep his walks down, as he had a 2.98 BB/9 in 2011, but a 3.60 BB/9 in 2013. But if he can drop his walks down to league average, he will perform like a solid #2 starter for the Angels’ rotation, and substantiate his large contract.
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers won 91 games in 2013, which to many teams would spell success. However, the Rangers missed the playoffs, as they fell one game behind the Cleveland Indians in the Wild Card standings. Their 91 wins was the highest for non-playoff team since the 2005 Indians won 93 games yet missed the playoffs. With the strong offseason the Rangers had, they appear poised to make a playoff run this season. As mentioned in a previous article, the Rangers traded second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Detroit Tigers for first baseman Prince Fielder. Fielder has been a perennial All-Star who has launched over 25 home runs in every full season of his career, and led the majors with 50 in 2007. This move not only adds Fielder’s power bat to the lineup, but makes room for second base prospect Jurickson Profar to play every day. Profar has shown the potential to be a power/speed, impact player at a weak position in the league. The pressing question is whether his AVG will be league average - in 324 plate appearances last season, he hit only .234. However he has his age on his side, as he will turn 21 this season. In addition to this blockbuster trade, the Rangers signed arguably the best free agent available this offseason, outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. In a previous article, I described how Choo has a low AVG but high OBP each season, an anomaly that can be explained using pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). Paul Petera found that players who average more pitches per plate appearance tend to have high OBP but low AVG. While this is just a correlation between statistics, a possible explanation for the correlation is that as a player sees more pitches, the probability of a walk increases, while the probability of a hit remains generally unchanged. However, the probability of a strike out also increases as more pitches are seen, which would keep the AVG low. Choo is a good player, but a dastardly split (.315 AVG against RHP, .217 AVG against LHP) indicates that he may be a platoon player at the end of his contract. The addition of Choo improves their lineup greatly, but with a $130 million price tag the value isn’t there. In addition to Fielder and Choo, the Rangers’ lineup contains third baseman Adrian Beltre and speedy shortstop Elvis Andrus, and both players are quietly performing like baseball’s elite.
The Rangers’ rotation is led by Yu Darvish, one of baseball’s best pitchers. However, the rest of the rotation has serious question marks. Martin Perez pitched his first full season last year, and while he performed well, it remains to be seen if he can repeat it. Matt Harrison had been a solid middle of the rotation starter, but had surgery for a herniated disk in his back last season, and has reported soreness during spring training and remains a health liability. Pitcher Alexi Ogando landed back in the rotation last year after spending 2012 in the bullpen, and saw moderate success, although he was plagued by injuries. He has consistently outperformed his FIP, and has shown issues with home runs and low K/9’s. Colby Lewis has recovered from tendon flexor surgery, and has the chance to push Ogando back into the bullpen, which would be ideal for the Rangers.
X Factor - Leonys Martin
Center fielder Leonys Martin has always had great speed in the minors, even if his stolen base totals don’t show that. He also showed an inkling of power potential, hitting eight home runs, the first eight of his major league career. However, he needed a .313 BABIP to keep his .260 AVG afloat. Furthermore, 16.8% of his balls in play went for infield fly balls, which are essentially automatic outs. This number is much higher than the league average, and as research has shown, there is a strong year-to-year correlation with this statistic. This will suppress his BABIP, indicating that his AVG may see a downturn in 2014. If he doesn’t continue to develop his power, he may profile as a one-tool player in the future. If he continues to develop and shows that his power is here to stay, he will bolster the Rangers lineup and provide them with a strong player to build around.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have not made the playoffs since 2002, and having the Houston Astros in the division has been the only thing preventing them from consistently being a last place team. They were among the league’s worst in team batting average, and in team ERA. They made many moves this offseason, but with few solid players to build around, these moves were not enough to make them into a winning team.
The biggest move was the signing of second baseman Robinson Cano, an All-star for the past four seasons, and has played in over 159 games in each season since 2007. Cano gives them an instant power bat in the lineup, and is one of the best second baseman in the league. Much ado has been made about how the new park will affect his statistics, namely home runs. According to FanGraphs, Yankee Stadium has a park factor of 114 for home runs for left handed batters. This means that Yankee Stadium allows more home runs than the average ball park (100 is league average). Safeco, on the other hand, has a park factor of 96, indicating that it allows fewer home runs than the league average ballpark to left handed hitters. Cano should see his home runs decrease, and he should also see other counting stats like RBI and runs decrease because of the weaker lineup around him. While he hit .314 with 27 HRs, 107 RBI and 84 runs, it appears that a line of .300, 20 HRs, 80 RBIs, and 80 runs is probable for the 2014 season.
In addition to Cano, the Mariners signed outfielder Logan Morrison, who will look to revive his career after two disappointing seasons with Miami. His best season in 2011 was highlighted by 23 home runs, but that was driven by a 18.1 HR/FB%. However, that has over-corrected, as it has now dropped below league average, and should rebound in 2014. He also increased his LD% last season, which helped raise his AVG by a few points, but it was still only .242. At only $1.8 million, he can provide good value and positional flexibility in the outfield or first base.
The Mariners also signed closer Fernando Rodney, who had a disappointing 2013 season, and it was especially disappointing when compared to his 2012 season where he posted an 0.60 ERA and racked up 48 saves. He will slot in as the closer for 2014, and while this will help the team, it is disappointing because it blocks prospect Danny Farquhar from closing. Farquhar showed potential in 55.2 innings last season, having a 12.77 K/9. He dominates by pairing a fastball that averaged 94.5 mph in 2013 with a curveball that generates above average whiffs. Hopefully Farquhar will get a chance at some point this season to thrive in the closer role.
X Factor - Dustin Ackley
In addition to both being selected in the 2009 MLB Draft out of the University of North Carolina, third baseman Kyle Seager and outfielder Dustin Ackley are similar players. Both players are very patient at the plate and have shown some potential to be a power/speed threat. Their patience at the plate gives them a high P/PA (pitches per plate appearance). As referenced earlier, players that have high P/PA generally have a lower AVG and a higher OBP. Ackley and Seager both support this finding.
X Factor – C.J. Wilson
Pitcher C.J. Wilson was signed by the Angels in December of 2011 to a five year, $77.5 million contract. His performance in his first seasons as an Angel was relatively disappointing. In 2011, as a member of the Texas Rangers, he finished the season with a 2.94 ERA and 5.4 WAR. He has not been able to get back to those levels, although he was very close in 2013. His 2013 FIP was only 27 points higher than his 2011 FIP, and his K/9 was close to 8 in both seasons. He hasn’t been able to keep his walks down, as he had a 2.98 BB/9 in 2011, but a 3.60 BB/9 in 2013. But if he can drop his walks down to league average, he will perform like a solid #2 starter for the Angels’ rotation, and substantiate his large contract.
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers won 91 games in 2013, which to many teams would spell success. However, the Rangers missed the playoffs, as they fell one game behind the Cleveland Indians in the Wild Card standings. Their 91 wins was the highest for non-playoff team since the 2005 Indians won 93 games yet missed the playoffs. With the strong offseason the Rangers had, they appear poised to make a playoff run this season. As mentioned in a previous article, the Rangers traded second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Detroit Tigers for first baseman Prince Fielder. Fielder has been a perennial All-Star who has launched over 25 home runs in every full season of his career, and led the majors with 50 in 2007. This move not only adds Fielder’s power bat to the lineup, but makes room for second base prospect Jurickson Profar to play every day. Profar has shown the potential to be a power/speed, impact player at a weak position in the league. The pressing question is whether his AVG will be league average - in 324 plate appearances last season, he hit only .234. However he has his age on his side, as he will turn 21 this season. In addition to this blockbuster trade, the Rangers signed arguably the best free agent available this offseason, outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. In a previous article, I described how Choo has a low AVG but high OBP each season, an anomaly that can be explained using pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). Paul Petera found that players who average more pitches per plate appearance tend to have high OBP but low AVG. While this is just a correlation between statistics, a possible explanation for the correlation is that as a player sees more pitches, the probability of a walk increases, while the probability of a hit remains generally unchanged. However, the probability of a strike out also increases as more pitches are seen, which would keep the AVG low. Choo is a good player, but a dastardly split (.315 AVG against RHP, .217 AVG against LHP) indicates that he may be a platoon player at the end of his contract. The addition of Choo improves their lineup greatly, but with a $130 million price tag the value isn’t there. In addition to Fielder and Choo, the Rangers’ lineup contains third baseman Adrian Beltre and speedy shortstop Elvis Andrus, and both players are quietly performing like baseball’s elite.
The Rangers’ rotation is led by Yu Darvish, one of baseball’s best pitchers. However, the rest of the rotation has serious question marks. Martin Perez pitched his first full season last year, and while he performed well, it remains to be seen if he can repeat it. Matt Harrison had been a solid middle of the rotation starter, but had surgery for a herniated disk in his back last season, and has reported soreness during spring training and remains a health liability. Pitcher Alexi Ogando landed back in the rotation last year after spending 2012 in the bullpen, and saw moderate success, although he was plagued by injuries. He has consistently outperformed his FIP, and has shown issues with home runs and low K/9’s. Colby Lewis has recovered from tendon flexor surgery, and has the chance to push Ogando back into the bullpen, which would be ideal for the Rangers.
X Factor - Leonys Martin
Center fielder Leonys Martin has always had great speed in the minors, even if his stolen base totals don’t show that. He also showed an inkling of power potential, hitting eight home runs, the first eight of his major league career. However, he needed a .313 BABIP to keep his .260 AVG afloat. Furthermore, 16.8% of his balls in play went for infield fly balls, which are essentially automatic outs. This number is much higher than the league average, and as research has shown, there is a strong year-to-year correlation with this statistic. This will suppress his BABIP, indicating that his AVG may see a downturn in 2014. If he doesn’t continue to develop his power, he may profile as a one-tool player in the future. If he continues to develop and shows that his power is here to stay, he will bolster the Rangers lineup and provide them with a strong player to build around.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have not made the playoffs since 2002, and having the Houston Astros in the division has been the only thing preventing them from consistently being a last place team. They were among the league’s worst in team batting average, and in team ERA. They made many moves this offseason, but with few solid players to build around, these moves were not enough to make them into a winning team.
The biggest move was the signing of second baseman Robinson Cano, an All-star for the past four seasons, and has played in over 159 games in each season since 2007. Cano gives them an instant power bat in the lineup, and is one of the best second baseman in the league. Much ado has been made about how the new park will affect his statistics, namely home runs. According to FanGraphs, Yankee Stadium has a park factor of 114 for home runs for left handed batters. This means that Yankee Stadium allows more home runs than the average ball park (100 is league average). Safeco, on the other hand, has a park factor of 96, indicating that it allows fewer home runs than the league average ballpark to left handed hitters. Cano should see his home runs decrease, and he should also see other counting stats like RBI and runs decrease because of the weaker lineup around him. While he hit .314 with 27 HRs, 107 RBI and 84 runs, it appears that a line of .300, 20 HRs, 80 RBIs, and 80 runs is probable for the 2014 season.
In addition to Cano, the Mariners signed outfielder Logan Morrison, who will look to revive his career after two disappointing seasons with Miami. His best season in 2011 was highlighted by 23 home runs, but that was driven by a 18.1 HR/FB%. However, that has over-corrected, as it has now dropped below league average, and should rebound in 2014. He also increased his LD% last season, which helped raise his AVG by a few points, but it was still only .242. At only $1.8 million, he can provide good value and positional flexibility in the outfield or first base.
The Mariners also signed closer Fernando Rodney, who had a disappointing 2013 season, and it was especially disappointing when compared to his 2012 season where he posted an 0.60 ERA and racked up 48 saves. He will slot in as the closer for 2014, and while this will help the team, it is disappointing because it blocks prospect Danny Farquhar from closing. Farquhar showed potential in 55.2 innings last season, having a 12.77 K/9. He dominates by pairing a fastball that averaged 94.5 mph in 2013 with a curveball that generates above average whiffs. Hopefully Farquhar will get a chance at some point this season to thrive in the closer role.
X Factor - Dustin Ackley
In addition to both being selected in the 2009 MLB Draft out of the University of North Carolina, third baseman Kyle Seager and outfielder Dustin Ackley are similar players. Both players are very patient at the plate and have shown some potential to be a power/speed threat. Their patience at the plate gives them a high P/PA (pitches per plate appearance). As referenced earlier, players that have high P/PA generally have a lower AVG and a higher OBP. Ackley and Seager both support this finding.
However, the clear distinguishing factor between the two players is that Kyle Seager has shown that his power breakout season was not an aberration, while Ackley has slipped back into mediocrity. Seager started hitting more fly balls, increasing his home runs, but Ackley started pounding the ball into the ground, recording a 51.1% GB rate. If Ackley could find his power stroke again, he would validate his first round draft selection and help the team solidify their outfield.
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros had the worst record in baseball last season at 51-111, and had 11 more losses than the next worst team, the Miami Marlins. However, they were not the worst offensive team in baseball, as the Cubs, White Sox and Marlins all scored fewer runs than the Astros, and Houston has young players who can potentially be, or already are, contributors to the team. Second baseman Jose Altuve, who is only 24, was an All-star in 2012 and had another solid year in 2013. Catcher Jason Castro, 27, hit 18 home runs and was worth 4.3 WAR in 2013. Third baseman Matt Dominguez, 24, shined in the field and pounded 21 home runs in his first full MLB season. George Springer, an outfielder who hit 37 home runs and stole 43 bases last season over Double-A and Triple-A, is oozing with potential and should be called up in early June. While having all these young players under team control is great, the Astros had the third worst starting rotation ERA and the worst bullpen ERA in the league. In fact, the Astros bullpen provided them with -5.4 WAR last season. They have limited options in the major leagues now, but prospects Mark Appel and Mike Foltynewicz have potential. Scott Feldman will lead the rotation this season, but he profiles as a innings eater, or slightly better. The Astros will need rotation help eventually to complement their young hitters if they want to maximize their potential as a team.
Jason Castro’s 4.3 WAR last season was fourth highest in the league at the position, and while his .351 BABIP should regress and bring his AVG down, his power breakout was legitimate. His HR/FB% did jump from 10.0% to 16.5%, but as FanGraphs’s Mike Podhorzer shows, Castro gained an average of 19 feet on his home runs last season. This increase in distance helps validate Castro’s power surge. While some distance regression is expected, Castro will remain a near-elite catcher, with room to grow.
X Factor - Jonathan Villar
Shortstop Jonathan Villar made his major league debut on 2013, and displayed speed potential, stealing 18 bases in 241 plate appearances, and having a Spd rating of 6.9, although he was thrown out eight times in 26 attempts. His AVG was below league average, and should remain low as he hit 65.6% of his balls in play as ground balls last season. The 2014 Baseball Prospectus comments, “It’s reasonable to assume that the youngster’s thievery will improve with experience; the tools are there. One could say the same about his defense, as his physical gifts were often mitigated by poor decision making.” At worst, he is an inexpensive bridge until prospect Carlos Correa is ready, but if the Astros got more out of him it would help balance their lineup and help improve the defense behind a ground ball heavy pitching staff.
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros had the worst record in baseball last season at 51-111, and had 11 more losses than the next worst team, the Miami Marlins. However, they were not the worst offensive team in baseball, as the Cubs, White Sox and Marlins all scored fewer runs than the Astros, and Houston has young players who can potentially be, or already are, contributors to the team. Second baseman Jose Altuve, who is only 24, was an All-star in 2012 and had another solid year in 2013. Catcher Jason Castro, 27, hit 18 home runs and was worth 4.3 WAR in 2013. Third baseman Matt Dominguez, 24, shined in the field and pounded 21 home runs in his first full MLB season. George Springer, an outfielder who hit 37 home runs and stole 43 bases last season over Double-A and Triple-A, is oozing with potential and should be called up in early June. While having all these young players under team control is great, the Astros had the third worst starting rotation ERA and the worst bullpen ERA in the league. In fact, the Astros bullpen provided them with -5.4 WAR last season. They have limited options in the major leagues now, but prospects Mark Appel and Mike Foltynewicz have potential. Scott Feldman will lead the rotation this season, but he profiles as a innings eater, or slightly better. The Astros will need rotation help eventually to complement their young hitters if they want to maximize their potential as a team.
Jason Castro’s 4.3 WAR last season was fourth highest in the league at the position, and while his .351 BABIP should regress and bring his AVG down, his power breakout was legitimate. His HR/FB% did jump from 10.0% to 16.5%, but as FanGraphs’s Mike Podhorzer shows, Castro gained an average of 19 feet on his home runs last season. This increase in distance helps validate Castro’s power surge. While some distance regression is expected, Castro will remain a near-elite catcher, with room to grow.
X Factor - Jonathan Villar
Shortstop Jonathan Villar made his major league debut on 2013, and displayed speed potential, stealing 18 bases in 241 plate appearances, and having a Spd rating of 6.9, although he was thrown out eight times in 26 attempts. His AVG was below league average, and should remain low as he hit 65.6% of his balls in play as ground balls last season. The 2014 Baseball Prospectus comments, “It’s reasonable to assume that the youngster’s thievery will improve with experience; the tools are there. One could say the same about his defense, as his physical gifts were often mitigated by poor decision making.” At worst, he is an inexpensive bridge until prospect Carlos Correa is ready, but if the Astros got more out of him it would help balance their lineup and help improve the defense behind a ground ball heavy pitching staff.