AL East Preview
Boston Red Sox
The reigning World Series champions made minor moves this offseason. Possibly the largest move was resigning Mike Napoli, who set a career high in plate appearances last season and was second on the Red Sox in HRs and RBIs. The return of Napoli gives them a complementary power bat to pair with David Ortiz. The Red Sox signed a great reliever in Edward Mujica. After tallying 37 saves last season for the Cardinals, he will likely be slotted in as the Red Sox set up man. Mujica and Red Sox closer Koji Uehara have similar pitches, as both throw a great splitter. Their splitters average around a 20% swing and miss rate, a high rate that indicates it is a dominant pitch.
Last season, the Red Sox led the league in On Base Pecentage (OBP). In a past article, I showed how OBP and runs scored had a high correlation, and this held true, as the Red Sox also led the league in runs scored. However, this high OBP may have been driven by a high, league leading BABIP (batting average on balls in play). How “lucky” a team or player is can be measured using BABIP. Each individual creates their own BABIP benchmark, and often times regression to the mean follows a season of increase or decrease in BABIP. Because of changing rosters, a team’s benchmark cannot be accurately measured. However, the 2013 Red Sox’s team BABIP of .329 is the highest recorded in the past 40 seasons, so some regression can be expected.
The Red Sox had many surprising contributors to their success last season.
(WAR=Wins Above Replacement)
The reigning World Series champions made minor moves this offseason. Possibly the largest move was resigning Mike Napoli, who set a career high in plate appearances last season and was second on the Red Sox in HRs and RBIs. The return of Napoli gives them a complementary power bat to pair with David Ortiz. The Red Sox signed a great reliever in Edward Mujica. After tallying 37 saves last season for the Cardinals, he will likely be slotted in as the Red Sox set up man. Mujica and Red Sox closer Koji Uehara have similar pitches, as both throw a great splitter. Their splitters average around a 20% swing and miss rate, a high rate that indicates it is a dominant pitch.
Last season, the Red Sox led the league in On Base Pecentage (OBP). In a past article, I showed how OBP and runs scored had a high correlation, and this held true, as the Red Sox also led the league in runs scored. However, this high OBP may have been driven by a high, league leading BABIP (batting average on balls in play). How “lucky” a team or player is can be measured using BABIP. Each individual creates their own BABIP benchmark, and often times regression to the mean follows a season of increase or decrease in BABIP. Because of changing rosters, a team’s benchmark cannot be accurately measured. However, the 2013 Red Sox’s team BABIP of .329 is the highest recorded in the past 40 seasons, so some regression can be expected.
The Red Sox had many surprising contributors to their success last season.
(WAR=Wins Above Replacement)
With many seemingly random breakout performances, and a very similar cast of players in 2014, the Red Sox may have reached their ceiling in 2013, as these breakout players’ performances are expected to regress in 2014. Jacoby Ellsbury, who contributed 5.8 WAR last season, has signed with the New York Yankees. The only forseeable new sources of WAR are in Xander Bogaerts, who has yet to play a full MLB season, and Jake Peavy, who came to the Red Sox midway through the season last year. Will Middlebrooks has an opportunity to contribute, but had an underwhelming debut season in 2013.
X Factor - Jackie Bradley Jr.
Jackie Bradley Jr. has big shoes to fill in the outfield, as it looks like he will take over the center field duties after the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury. He saw a handful of plate appearances last season, and put up unspectacular numbers. If the Red Sox are to be successful this season, they will need better than league average production from Jackie Bradley Jr.
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees had a very busy offseason, spending $458 million on catcher Brian McCann, outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, outfielder Carlos Beltran, and pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. McCann will provide them with an improvement behind the plate, as Austin Romine and Chris Stewart were ineffective last season, batting .211 and .207, respectively. Yankee Stadium’s short right field wall will also benefit McCann, who has shown that he is a pull hitter. Ellsbury has shown he is a strong contributor, constantly putting up elite steals and AVG, with some power as well. However, he has frequently made trips to the disabled list, which has mitigated his overall value. Based on the history of successful Japanese pitchers coming to the MLB, Tanaka will likely see success in his first seasons. However, his long term success is unknown. Even though Daisuke Matsuzaka is generally regarded as a bust, he still was a strong player in his first two seasons with the Red Sox. The easiest comparison is Yu Darvish, who had similar numbers in the Japanese league. It would be foolish to expect the same success that Darvish has had in the MLB for Tanaka, but it is definitely a possibility.
2013 was a bad season for pitcher CC Sabathia. His ERA increased from 3.38 in 2012 to 4.78 in 2013. At first glance, this may look like an abrupt result of aging, but his peripheral numbers suggest otherwise. His ground ball rate (GB%) decreased from 48.7% in 2012 to 44.7% in 2013. This coincided with an increase in his BABIP by 20 points. In an article released by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN, he found the league average BABIPs for each batted ball type.
X Factor - Jackie Bradley Jr.
Jackie Bradley Jr. has big shoes to fill in the outfield, as it looks like he will take over the center field duties after the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury. He saw a handful of plate appearances last season, and put up unspectacular numbers. If the Red Sox are to be successful this season, they will need better than league average production from Jackie Bradley Jr.
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees had a very busy offseason, spending $458 million on catcher Brian McCann, outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, outfielder Carlos Beltran, and pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. McCann will provide them with an improvement behind the plate, as Austin Romine and Chris Stewart were ineffective last season, batting .211 and .207, respectively. Yankee Stadium’s short right field wall will also benefit McCann, who has shown that he is a pull hitter. Ellsbury has shown he is a strong contributor, constantly putting up elite steals and AVG, with some power as well. However, he has frequently made trips to the disabled list, which has mitigated his overall value. Based on the history of successful Japanese pitchers coming to the MLB, Tanaka will likely see success in his first seasons. However, his long term success is unknown. Even though Daisuke Matsuzaka is generally regarded as a bust, he still was a strong player in his first two seasons with the Red Sox. The easiest comparison is Yu Darvish, who had similar numbers in the Japanese league. It would be foolish to expect the same success that Darvish has had in the MLB for Tanaka, but it is definitely a possibility.
2013 was a bad season for pitcher CC Sabathia. His ERA increased from 3.38 in 2012 to 4.78 in 2013. At first glance, this may look like an abrupt result of aging, but his peripheral numbers suggest otherwise. His ground ball rate (GB%) decreased from 48.7% in 2012 to 44.7% in 2013. This coincided with an increase in his BABIP by 20 points. In an article released by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN, he found the league average BABIPs for each batted ball type.
This explains that the decrease in ground balls would increase his BABIP, but his line drive percentage did not significantly increase as a result. However, his infield fly ball percentage also decreased from 10.2% to 8.4%. Assuming that the BABIP of an infield fly ball is .000 because of the ease and the “infield fly rule”, then this would further explain the BABIP increase. Much of the GB% decrease can be attributed to his slider, as his GB per Balls In Play decreased from 45.86 to 32.03 for his slider specifically. This trend started in 2012, but was masked in 2012 by more GBs created by his sinker. Many changes would have to be made for this trend to reverse in 2014, and even though he claims to be in better shape, it doesn’t look like Sabathia will return to his ace status.
Last season, the Yankees had a 30-16 record in games decided by one run. In 2012, Baseball Prospectus writer Ben Lindbergh found that the correlation between one run games and overall record was .40. This shows that the outcome of one run games is influenced by random variation more than other games. For example, in 2012, the Red Sox had a winning percentage in one run games of .435. The Yankees had a winning percentage in one run games of .468. However, the Yankees won 26 more games than the Red Sox that season. There is a strong possibility that the Yankees record in one run games will regress in 2014, and the Yankees’ wins in 2014 will not increase as much as their free agent signings would indicate.
X Factor - Masahiro Tanaka
Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman said on an ESPN Radio podcast, “We view [Tanaka] to be a really solid, consistent No. 3 starter”. He is clearly trying to reduce expectations for Tanaka, as a No. 3 starter does not get signed to a 7 year, $155 million contract. If Tanaka can translate his Japanese numbers into MLB numbers, then he will be able to lead the Yankees rotation and give it a significant edge over competitors.
Tampa Bay Rays
It was another quiet offseason for the Tampa Bay Rays, with the biggest news coming from the resigning of David Price. Price signed a $14 million, one year extension to avoid arbitration, which is enormous when compared to the Ray’s $57.5 million team payroll last season. In 2013, the Rays had the second lowest cost per win, according to a metric created by Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus. The Rays generally made minor moves this offseason, but a critical move was the resigning of James Loney, who provided the Rays with solid first base production. If he signed with another team, utility player Sean Rodriguez would have been slotted to play first base. While Loney’s BABIP did increase from .269 to .326, his Line Drive percentage (LD%) increased with it, partially validating this increase in BABIP. While a .326 BABIP may be unsustainable for Loney, a BABIP around .300 is feasible.
Wil Myers will continue to be a focus of the team as he enters his first season after winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. He posted strong numbers in 82 games last season, and was valued at 2.4 WAR in that limited playing time. While it may seem that his numbers were driven by a .362 BABIP, he has a minor league track record of having a high BABIP (BABIP always over .300). A small regression may be in the cards, which would bring down his AVG. A lower average in 2014 would be supported by Paul Petera’s Pitchers per Plate Appearance (P/PA). As referenced in a previous article, seeing more pitches per plate appearance results in a higher OBP and a lower AVG. Myers saw an average of 3.957 pitches per plate appearance in 2013, which support a similar OBP and a slightly lower AVG in 2014. P/PA can also be used as a leading indicator in power, and Myers’ P/PA indicates above average, but not elite power. Furthermore, Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton has found that an individual player’s P/PA stabilizes after 150 PA, so Myers’ sample size of 373 PA provides ample data. Overall, Myers will continue to provide above average power numbers and a “good enough” batting average to be a critical part of the Rays for years to come.
X Factor - Chris Archer
Chris Archer had great numbers in his first full MLB season. He dominated right handed batters the entire season, holding them to a .174 AVG. He struggled with his control in the first half of the season, recording a 3.66 walks per nine innings (BB/9), but then bounced back with a 1.99 BB/9 in the second half. He also established his slider as a strikeout pitch in the second half, raising the whiff percentage from around 12% to 19.78% in August. If he can continue the trend in 2014, he will be a great value to the Rays. However, if he slides in 2014, the Rays roster will have questions at the back end of the rotation, as Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi each have their own question marks.
Toronto Blue Jays
Time is running out for the Toronto Blue Jays. After sending away most of their prospects to acquire veterans like Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, they then entered a “win now” phase, but they haven’t been winning. They finished last in the AL East last season, 23 games out of first place. The main issue was their pitching, which was 25th in the league in team ERA. R.A. Dickey severely regressed after his stellar 2012 season, and Josh Johnson performed poorly and missed the end of the season with a forearm strain. The Blue Jays did not make any significant offseason moves, which creates an uphill battle if they want to continue to try to win now.
R.A. Dickey saw regression across the board last season, as his 2013 numbers suggest 2012 was a fluke in his 13 year career. While his whiff rates on his pitches has marginal variation year to year, in 2012, all his pitches had whiff rates at or above his career average. His knuckleball also saw increased velocity, so that may have had an effect on its results. However, in the majority of 2013, that trend and the velocity disappeared. His knuckleball did regain velocity in August and September, and he posted a higher strikeout percentage around the same time. He will need to keep this velocity up if he wants to see success in 2014.
After playing in 43 games in 2011 and posting strong numbers, Brett Lawrie was a popular sleeper player in 2012. However, he failed to deliver, and had disappointing numbers. In 2013, he visited the disabled list twice with an oblique strain and a sprained ankle, and put up numbers similar to 2012. His walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) was low in 2012 and 2013, at .38 and .44, respectively. In Ron Shandler’s 2014 Baseball Forecaster he showed that players who have BB/K under .5 average an AVG of .253, so his low batting average is supported by his peripheral numbers. Additionally, his P/PA indicates that his power will remain at league average. In the aforementioned work by Paul Petera, Lawrie’s P/PA of 3.66 indicates that his power will remain around league average. His 2011 hot streak is losing relevance as he produces more seasons of league average work, and the trend is set to continue in 2014.
X Factor - Brandon Morrow
Brandon Morrow’s underlying statistics in 2010 and 2011 suggested that a breakout was set for 2012, and he had a career best ERA that year. His strikeouts went down significantly, from 10.19 in 2011 to 7.80 in 2012. However, this was masked by a career best strand and ground ball rate, and a decreased walk rate. In 2013, his strand and ground ball rates climbed back up, but his strikeouts did not follow. He also struggled to keep the ball in the park, as he allowed 1.99 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in 2013. Injuries limited him to 10 starts, and he was eventually shut down for the season with a nerve problem in his forearm. If he can get back to his 2010-2012 levels, then he will be a huge help for the Blue Jay’s pitching staff. If not, it looks like the “win now” idea will have to wait another year.
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles finished third in the division in 2013, but their success can be attributed to their offense performing marginally better then their poor pitching. Their team ERA was above league average, and they allowed the most home runs in the league. While a complete turn around is not expected, young pitcher Kevin Gausman and the recent signing of Ubaldo Jimenez gives the team some hope for optimism. Gausman was called up during the end of the 2013 season and while he struggled when starting, his peripheral numbers and his minor league track record suggest that he still has room to grow and may see moderate success this season.
In the past years, Ubaldo Jimenez has not been able to get back to his elite 2010 levels. His 2.88 ERA in 2010 can be attributed to a 5.1% HR/FB ratio. Similar to a hitter’s BABIP, each pitcher establishes their own home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB). An increase or decrease in HR/FB usually results in regression back to the pitcher’s average. Jimenez had established his HR/FB baseline as around 7.5%, so 5.1% was a clear outlier. Overall regression hit immediately in 2011, and his GB%, strand rate, and HR/FB all worsened. This resulted in a 1.80 increase in his ERA. He posted similar numbers in 2012 and the beginning of 2013, but he made improvements in the second half of the 2013 season. He dramatically increased his strikeouts, and held opponents to a .219 AVG. If he were to fully rebound in 2014, it would be an enormous benefit for the Orioles for this season, but also future years, as he is signed for four seasons.
Outfielder Chris Davis dominated in 2013, finally having his power breakout and leading the league with 53 home runs. However, it was a tale of two halves, as he batted .315 in the first half and hit 37 home runs, but batted only .245 in the second half and hit 16 home runs. Some of his numbers seem unsustainable, like his .346 Isolated Power (ISO). However, his BABIP falls in line with his career numbers, and his HR/FB rate, while enormous at 29.6%, is not far from his 2012 rate of 25.2%. In 2014, 35 home runs and a .270 AVG can safely be expected, and he still has more upside than that.
X Factor - Manny Machado
While there is little doubt that he has star potential, the Orioles need Machado to be healthy enough to be an offensive stalwart in their line up. When Machado is healthy, he provides a strong AVG with some power and a few steals. A dramatic BABIP regression in the second half harmed his batting average, but there is still much room for growth.
Last season, the Yankees had a 30-16 record in games decided by one run. In 2012, Baseball Prospectus writer Ben Lindbergh found that the correlation between one run games and overall record was .40. This shows that the outcome of one run games is influenced by random variation more than other games. For example, in 2012, the Red Sox had a winning percentage in one run games of .435. The Yankees had a winning percentage in one run games of .468. However, the Yankees won 26 more games than the Red Sox that season. There is a strong possibility that the Yankees record in one run games will regress in 2014, and the Yankees’ wins in 2014 will not increase as much as their free agent signings would indicate.
X Factor - Masahiro Tanaka
Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman said on an ESPN Radio podcast, “We view [Tanaka] to be a really solid, consistent No. 3 starter”. He is clearly trying to reduce expectations for Tanaka, as a No. 3 starter does not get signed to a 7 year, $155 million contract. If Tanaka can translate his Japanese numbers into MLB numbers, then he will be able to lead the Yankees rotation and give it a significant edge over competitors.
Tampa Bay Rays
It was another quiet offseason for the Tampa Bay Rays, with the biggest news coming from the resigning of David Price. Price signed a $14 million, one year extension to avoid arbitration, which is enormous when compared to the Ray’s $57.5 million team payroll last season. In 2013, the Rays had the second lowest cost per win, according to a metric created by Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus. The Rays generally made minor moves this offseason, but a critical move was the resigning of James Loney, who provided the Rays with solid first base production. If he signed with another team, utility player Sean Rodriguez would have been slotted to play first base. While Loney’s BABIP did increase from .269 to .326, his Line Drive percentage (LD%) increased with it, partially validating this increase in BABIP. While a .326 BABIP may be unsustainable for Loney, a BABIP around .300 is feasible.
Wil Myers will continue to be a focus of the team as he enters his first season after winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. He posted strong numbers in 82 games last season, and was valued at 2.4 WAR in that limited playing time. While it may seem that his numbers were driven by a .362 BABIP, he has a minor league track record of having a high BABIP (BABIP always over .300). A small regression may be in the cards, which would bring down his AVG. A lower average in 2014 would be supported by Paul Petera’s Pitchers per Plate Appearance (P/PA). As referenced in a previous article, seeing more pitches per plate appearance results in a higher OBP and a lower AVG. Myers saw an average of 3.957 pitches per plate appearance in 2013, which support a similar OBP and a slightly lower AVG in 2014. P/PA can also be used as a leading indicator in power, and Myers’ P/PA indicates above average, but not elite power. Furthermore, Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton has found that an individual player’s P/PA stabilizes after 150 PA, so Myers’ sample size of 373 PA provides ample data. Overall, Myers will continue to provide above average power numbers and a “good enough” batting average to be a critical part of the Rays for years to come.
X Factor - Chris Archer
Chris Archer had great numbers in his first full MLB season. He dominated right handed batters the entire season, holding them to a .174 AVG. He struggled with his control in the first half of the season, recording a 3.66 walks per nine innings (BB/9), but then bounced back with a 1.99 BB/9 in the second half. He also established his slider as a strikeout pitch in the second half, raising the whiff percentage from around 12% to 19.78% in August. If he can continue the trend in 2014, he will be a great value to the Rays. However, if he slides in 2014, the Rays roster will have questions at the back end of the rotation, as Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi each have their own question marks.
Toronto Blue Jays
Time is running out for the Toronto Blue Jays. After sending away most of their prospects to acquire veterans like Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, they then entered a “win now” phase, but they haven’t been winning. They finished last in the AL East last season, 23 games out of first place. The main issue was their pitching, which was 25th in the league in team ERA. R.A. Dickey severely regressed after his stellar 2012 season, and Josh Johnson performed poorly and missed the end of the season with a forearm strain. The Blue Jays did not make any significant offseason moves, which creates an uphill battle if they want to continue to try to win now.
R.A. Dickey saw regression across the board last season, as his 2013 numbers suggest 2012 was a fluke in his 13 year career. While his whiff rates on his pitches has marginal variation year to year, in 2012, all his pitches had whiff rates at or above his career average. His knuckleball also saw increased velocity, so that may have had an effect on its results. However, in the majority of 2013, that trend and the velocity disappeared. His knuckleball did regain velocity in August and September, and he posted a higher strikeout percentage around the same time. He will need to keep this velocity up if he wants to see success in 2014.
After playing in 43 games in 2011 and posting strong numbers, Brett Lawrie was a popular sleeper player in 2012. However, he failed to deliver, and had disappointing numbers. In 2013, he visited the disabled list twice with an oblique strain and a sprained ankle, and put up numbers similar to 2012. His walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) was low in 2012 and 2013, at .38 and .44, respectively. In Ron Shandler’s 2014 Baseball Forecaster he showed that players who have BB/K under .5 average an AVG of .253, so his low batting average is supported by his peripheral numbers. Additionally, his P/PA indicates that his power will remain at league average. In the aforementioned work by Paul Petera, Lawrie’s P/PA of 3.66 indicates that his power will remain around league average. His 2011 hot streak is losing relevance as he produces more seasons of league average work, and the trend is set to continue in 2014.
X Factor - Brandon Morrow
Brandon Morrow’s underlying statistics in 2010 and 2011 suggested that a breakout was set for 2012, and he had a career best ERA that year. His strikeouts went down significantly, from 10.19 in 2011 to 7.80 in 2012. However, this was masked by a career best strand and ground ball rate, and a decreased walk rate. In 2013, his strand and ground ball rates climbed back up, but his strikeouts did not follow. He also struggled to keep the ball in the park, as he allowed 1.99 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in 2013. Injuries limited him to 10 starts, and he was eventually shut down for the season with a nerve problem in his forearm. If he can get back to his 2010-2012 levels, then he will be a huge help for the Blue Jay’s pitching staff. If not, it looks like the “win now” idea will have to wait another year.
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles finished third in the division in 2013, but their success can be attributed to their offense performing marginally better then their poor pitching. Their team ERA was above league average, and they allowed the most home runs in the league. While a complete turn around is not expected, young pitcher Kevin Gausman and the recent signing of Ubaldo Jimenez gives the team some hope for optimism. Gausman was called up during the end of the 2013 season and while he struggled when starting, his peripheral numbers and his minor league track record suggest that he still has room to grow and may see moderate success this season.
In the past years, Ubaldo Jimenez has not been able to get back to his elite 2010 levels. His 2.88 ERA in 2010 can be attributed to a 5.1% HR/FB ratio. Similar to a hitter’s BABIP, each pitcher establishes their own home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB). An increase or decrease in HR/FB usually results in regression back to the pitcher’s average. Jimenez had established his HR/FB baseline as around 7.5%, so 5.1% was a clear outlier. Overall regression hit immediately in 2011, and his GB%, strand rate, and HR/FB all worsened. This resulted in a 1.80 increase in his ERA. He posted similar numbers in 2012 and the beginning of 2013, but he made improvements in the second half of the 2013 season. He dramatically increased his strikeouts, and held opponents to a .219 AVG. If he were to fully rebound in 2014, it would be an enormous benefit for the Orioles for this season, but also future years, as he is signed for four seasons.
Outfielder Chris Davis dominated in 2013, finally having his power breakout and leading the league with 53 home runs. However, it was a tale of two halves, as he batted .315 in the first half and hit 37 home runs, but batted only .245 in the second half and hit 16 home runs. Some of his numbers seem unsustainable, like his .346 Isolated Power (ISO). However, his BABIP falls in line with his career numbers, and his HR/FB rate, while enormous at 29.6%, is not far from his 2012 rate of 25.2%. In 2014, 35 home runs and a .270 AVG can safely be expected, and he still has more upside than that.
X Factor - Manny Machado
While there is little doubt that he has star potential, the Orioles need Machado to be healthy enough to be an offensive stalwart in their line up. When Machado is healthy, he provides a strong AVG with some power and a few steals. A dramatic BABIP regression in the second half harmed his batting average, but there is still much room for growth.