AL Central Preview
Detroit Tigers
In Game 6 of the 2013 ALCS, Shane Victorino pounded a 0-2 curveball into the Green Monster at Fenway Park, effectively ending the Tigers’ 2013 season. The Tigers made many smart moves this offseason, positioning them for another playoff run. The biggest move was trading Prince Fielder and cash to the Rangers in exchange for Ian Kinsler. This looks like a brilliant move from a personnel perspective. It gives them significant infield defense improvements, as Miguel Cabrera can move from third base back to first base where the Tigers can hide his defense - in 2013, Miguel Cabrera had an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR, a defensive range metric) of -16.8 at third base (read: very bad). This was second worst in qualified players at all positions in the league last season, .1 away from last place. He will be replaced by Nick Castellanos, who spent the majority of last season posting decent numbers at Triple-A Toledo. At second base, Omar Infante posted an “empty” .318 AVG, adding only 10 homeruns and five steals. Kinsler will be a significant upgrade over Infante in almost every aspect of the game. In addition to this blockbuster move, the Tigers signed steals specialist Rajai Davis and reliever Joe Nathan both to two year deals. While Davis is not slated to start for the Tigers, he will be a valuable reserve who can provide speed off the bench. Joe Nathan had 43 saves last season for the Rangers, but his HR/FB ratio dropped from 13.0% in 2012 to 3.0% 2013. He also stranded 10% more runners in 2013 than he did in 2012, and both of these numbers should regress in 2014, as 38 year old relief pitchers generally do not re-breakout. However, he can still provide bullpen depth for the Tigers, if used in select circumstances. While these moves are each beneficial, the Tigers traded Doug Fister for Robbie Ray, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ian Krol, which left many people scratching their heads. Fister made significant strides last season, and is under team control for the next few years. The return was disappointing, as Lomardozzi has accrued negative WAR over his career, and Ray and Krol have shown limited upside. General Manager Dan Dombrowski has the trust of the fans, but analysts and fans alike question this last move.
Ian Kinsler has been one of baseball’s elite second basemen for much of his career. While he has been worth a total of 29.1 WAR, his best days seem to be behind him. His power numbers have been sinking over the past couple years, as his Isolated Power (ISO) has been decreasing quickly since his 32 home run season in 2011. However, his line drive percentage (LD%) has been increasing in the past three seasons, which explains his 22 point increase in AVG (.255 to .277). His Statistically Scouted Speed (Spd) has been decreasing in the past three seasons, and his stolen base success rate has dropped to 58% as well. His contract will be decent in the first couple years, but may be a burden come 2017. In a vacuum, this deal may have favored the Rangers. But, because of the positional flexibilities and improved defense it gives the Tigers, it will benefit them more, at least in the early stages of Kinsler’s contact.
Justin Verlander had a “down” year for Justin Verlander’s standards. His ERA increased from 2.64 in 2012 to 3.46 in 2013, his highest since 2008, yet his peripheral numbers remained relatively unchanged. His strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) only changed by 0.08, and his home runs per nine innings (HR/9) by only 0.06. The main source of Verlander’s inflated ERA last season was his BABIP. While I mention this statistic quite a bit, it can be useful in validating performances on a year-to-year basis. Here, Verlander’s BABIP went from .273 in 2012 to .316 in 2013. In 2000, baseball sabermetrician Voros McCracken published a study showing how pitchers have little control over their BABIP, and there is minimal correlation between a pitcher’s BABIP from one year to another. This is true with Verlander – his BABIP has ranged 83 points in the past three years – and Verlander should return as one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2014. One side note is that his fastball and cutter both lost around one mph last season. This is just something to watch, and not a cause for concern.
X Factor – Nick Castellanos
Castellanos had moderate success in Triple-A in 2013 batting .276 with 18 home runs and four steals over 595 plate appearances. While the 18 home runs may look like an outlier in his minor league trends, most of his playing time had been in small sample sizes at each level. If his home run rates of previous partial seasons were extrapolated over a full season, the results indicate that an 18 home run season is feasible, but pushing the ceiling of Castellanos’ major league production. In reality, there are no current question marks on the Tigers’ roster that are going to make or break their season, but solid production from Castellanos at third base would be great for the Tigers this year, and more importantly in the long run, as he may be the long term option at third, or at least place filler for the Tigers until a new prospect or player is acquired.
Kansas City Royals
Over the past few years, the Kansas City Royals have been accruing very talented prospects in the draft, building excitement for the next generation of Royals stars. However, these prospects have not fully lived up to their expectations. Luke Hochevar, the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, did not have a season ERA under 4.00 in for the Royals as a starter, and was sent to the bullpen last season. Mike Moustakas, the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, took five seasons to reach the majors, and once he did, he posted an uninspiring .244 AVG and a .141 ISO. Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick in the 2008 draft, has shown the most potential, batting .302 last season and showing 20 home run / 20 steal potential. Mike Montgomery, the Royals top pick in 2009, is no longer with the organization, and Aaron Crow, their top pick in 2010, has now settled into the bullpen. In 2012, the Royals mortgaged a large portion of the farm system through trades to try to win now. The Royals won 12 more games in 2013 than they did in 2012, but still finished in third place in the division and missed the playoffs. The Royals have almost all the pieces for success, but need to get moving before contracts of key players expire.
The Royals signed catcher Salvador Perez in 2012 for only $7 million over five years. He has shown decent power potential, and posted a high AVG for a catcher. His LD% that was better than league average, which would support his high AVG because of the higher BABIP line drives have relative to other batted ball types. However, his power numbers are suspect. He hit nine home runs in the last two months of the season, but at the same time he had a major HR/FB spike, as it jumped from around 5% in July through April, to 17.3% in the last two months of the season. This number should regress, and his power numbers should drop as well. This lack of power is team wide problem. Last season, the Royals hit the third fewest home runs in the league. Many of their power contributors like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon seem to be trending in the wrong direction, due to age or eroding skills. While they did have a team AVG that was better than league average, they don’t have enough players with extra base pop to drive in sufficient runs.
The poster boy for the Royals’ home-grown talent philosophy, outfielder Alex Gordon had his breakout, and best season so far, in 2011. He displayed speed, power and average, and was posted a 6.6 WAR. However, he has not been able to match those numbers in future seasons. He has had trouble handling offspeed pitches since his breakout, and has had a steady increase in his whiff percentage against off speed pitches. Data also suggests that Gordon’s batting eye has been worsening. While his overall swing percentage (percentage of pitches he has swung at) has been staying relatively constant, he has been swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, and fewer pitches inside the strike zone. This also explains his worsening walk to strikeout ratio. This is not to say that Gordon will completely fall off – he will still be a decent hitter with strong defense – but it looks like he will not return to near elite levels.
X Factor – Eric Hosmer
Eric Hosmer rebounded from a disappointing 2012, where he posted -1.7 WAR, and posted surface statistics similar to his breakout rookie season in 2011. However, his peripheral numbers suggest that his 2013 season was better than his 2011 season.
In Game 6 of the 2013 ALCS, Shane Victorino pounded a 0-2 curveball into the Green Monster at Fenway Park, effectively ending the Tigers’ 2013 season. The Tigers made many smart moves this offseason, positioning them for another playoff run. The biggest move was trading Prince Fielder and cash to the Rangers in exchange for Ian Kinsler. This looks like a brilliant move from a personnel perspective. It gives them significant infield defense improvements, as Miguel Cabrera can move from third base back to first base where the Tigers can hide his defense - in 2013, Miguel Cabrera had an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR, a defensive range metric) of -16.8 at third base (read: very bad). This was second worst in qualified players at all positions in the league last season, .1 away from last place. He will be replaced by Nick Castellanos, who spent the majority of last season posting decent numbers at Triple-A Toledo. At second base, Omar Infante posted an “empty” .318 AVG, adding only 10 homeruns and five steals. Kinsler will be a significant upgrade over Infante in almost every aspect of the game. In addition to this blockbuster move, the Tigers signed steals specialist Rajai Davis and reliever Joe Nathan both to two year deals. While Davis is not slated to start for the Tigers, he will be a valuable reserve who can provide speed off the bench. Joe Nathan had 43 saves last season for the Rangers, but his HR/FB ratio dropped from 13.0% in 2012 to 3.0% 2013. He also stranded 10% more runners in 2013 than he did in 2012, and both of these numbers should regress in 2014, as 38 year old relief pitchers generally do not re-breakout. However, he can still provide bullpen depth for the Tigers, if used in select circumstances. While these moves are each beneficial, the Tigers traded Doug Fister for Robbie Ray, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ian Krol, which left many people scratching their heads. Fister made significant strides last season, and is under team control for the next few years. The return was disappointing, as Lomardozzi has accrued negative WAR over his career, and Ray and Krol have shown limited upside. General Manager Dan Dombrowski has the trust of the fans, but analysts and fans alike question this last move.
Ian Kinsler has been one of baseball’s elite second basemen for much of his career. While he has been worth a total of 29.1 WAR, his best days seem to be behind him. His power numbers have been sinking over the past couple years, as his Isolated Power (ISO) has been decreasing quickly since his 32 home run season in 2011. However, his line drive percentage (LD%) has been increasing in the past three seasons, which explains his 22 point increase in AVG (.255 to .277). His Statistically Scouted Speed (Spd) has been decreasing in the past three seasons, and his stolen base success rate has dropped to 58% as well. His contract will be decent in the first couple years, but may be a burden come 2017. In a vacuum, this deal may have favored the Rangers. But, because of the positional flexibilities and improved defense it gives the Tigers, it will benefit them more, at least in the early stages of Kinsler’s contact.
Justin Verlander had a “down” year for Justin Verlander’s standards. His ERA increased from 2.64 in 2012 to 3.46 in 2013, his highest since 2008, yet his peripheral numbers remained relatively unchanged. His strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) only changed by 0.08, and his home runs per nine innings (HR/9) by only 0.06. The main source of Verlander’s inflated ERA last season was his BABIP. While I mention this statistic quite a bit, it can be useful in validating performances on a year-to-year basis. Here, Verlander’s BABIP went from .273 in 2012 to .316 in 2013. In 2000, baseball sabermetrician Voros McCracken published a study showing how pitchers have little control over their BABIP, and there is minimal correlation between a pitcher’s BABIP from one year to another. This is true with Verlander – his BABIP has ranged 83 points in the past three years – and Verlander should return as one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2014. One side note is that his fastball and cutter both lost around one mph last season. This is just something to watch, and not a cause for concern.
X Factor – Nick Castellanos
Castellanos had moderate success in Triple-A in 2013 batting .276 with 18 home runs and four steals over 595 plate appearances. While the 18 home runs may look like an outlier in his minor league trends, most of his playing time had been in small sample sizes at each level. If his home run rates of previous partial seasons were extrapolated over a full season, the results indicate that an 18 home run season is feasible, but pushing the ceiling of Castellanos’ major league production. In reality, there are no current question marks on the Tigers’ roster that are going to make or break their season, but solid production from Castellanos at third base would be great for the Tigers this year, and more importantly in the long run, as he may be the long term option at third, or at least place filler for the Tigers until a new prospect or player is acquired.
Kansas City Royals
Over the past few years, the Kansas City Royals have been accruing very talented prospects in the draft, building excitement for the next generation of Royals stars. However, these prospects have not fully lived up to their expectations. Luke Hochevar, the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, did not have a season ERA under 4.00 in for the Royals as a starter, and was sent to the bullpen last season. Mike Moustakas, the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, took five seasons to reach the majors, and once he did, he posted an uninspiring .244 AVG and a .141 ISO. Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick in the 2008 draft, has shown the most potential, batting .302 last season and showing 20 home run / 20 steal potential. Mike Montgomery, the Royals top pick in 2009, is no longer with the organization, and Aaron Crow, their top pick in 2010, has now settled into the bullpen. In 2012, the Royals mortgaged a large portion of the farm system through trades to try to win now. The Royals won 12 more games in 2013 than they did in 2012, but still finished in third place in the division and missed the playoffs. The Royals have almost all the pieces for success, but need to get moving before contracts of key players expire.
The Royals signed catcher Salvador Perez in 2012 for only $7 million over five years. He has shown decent power potential, and posted a high AVG for a catcher. His LD% that was better than league average, which would support his high AVG because of the higher BABIP line drives have relative to other batted ball types. However, his power numbers are suspect. He hit nine home runs in the last two months of the season, but at the same time he had a major HR/FB spike, as it jumped from around 5% in July through April, to 17.3% in the last two months of the season. This number should regress, and his power numbers should drop as well. This lack of power is team wide problem. Last season, the Royals hit the third fewest home runs in the league. Many of their power contributors like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon seem to be trending in the wrong direction, due to age or eroding skills. While they did have a team AVG that was better than league average, they don’t have enough players with extra base pop to drive in sufficient runs.
The poster boy for the Royals’ home-grown talent philosophy, outfielder Alex Gordon had his breakout, and best season so far, in 2011. He displayed speed, power and average, and was posted a 6.6 WAR. However, he has not been able to match those numbers in future seasons. He has had trouble handling offspeed pitches since his breakout, and has had a steady increase in his whiff percentage against off speed pitches. Data also suggests that Gordon’s batting eye has been worsening. While his overall swing percentage (percentage of pitches he has swung at) has been staying relatively constant, he has been swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, and fewer pitches inside the strike zone. This also explains his worsening walk to strikeout ratio. This is not to say that Gordon will completely fall off – he will still be a decent hitter with strong defense – but it looks like he will not return to near elite levels.
X Factor – Eric Hosmer
Eric Hosmer rebounded from a disappointing 2012, where he posted -1.7 WAR, and posted surface statistics similar to his breakout rookie season in 2011. However, his peripheral numbers suggest that his 2013 season was better than his 2011 season.
His BABIP increased significantly from 2011 to 2013, which also increased his AVG. While this may look like a candidate for regression, his LD% also increased, validating his 2013 BABIP.
His batting eye also improved in 2013 compared to 2011. He swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%), and this improved his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K).
After a slow start, he turned it around in the second half, improving his batting average by 38 points. If he can continue these strides into 2014, he will justify his high draft slot, and help the power-desperate Royals. If he slides back toward 2012, Hosmer will look like another failed high draft pick by the Royals.
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians advanced to the postseason for the first time in five years last season, winning 24 more games than they had in 2012. While they had a team ERA around league average, they had the fourth fewest quality starts as a team. With the success they had overall last season, a number this low is intriguing. Furthermore, they had a high winning percentage in one run games (similar to the Yankees), and as mentioned previously, research has shown the randomness has a large effect on one run games. These two factors alone suggest that there may be regression as a team in 2014.
The Indians had a productive offseason, signing outfielder David Murphy, reliever John Axford, and resigning key players like Michael Brantley and Justin Masterson. Murphy had played most of his games with the Rangers and exhibited a strong batting average until 2013, where he posted an anemic .220 AVG, driven by a 106 point drop in his BABIP. His LD% did not fall with it, suggesting that his AVG should rebound in 2014. John Axford had established himself as one of baseball’s better relievers until his performance collapsed in 2012. He struggled to limit home runs and blew 16 saves, the most by any pitcher in the last two years. However, after his mid-season trade to St. Louis in 2013, the pitching coaches realized he had been “tipping” his pitches. He finished the season strong, albeit in a small sample size, but should rebound in 2014.
Justin Masterson continued to make strides of improvement in his sixth MLB season. While he profiles better as a second starter, he is slotted to be the Indians’ ace in 2014. He lowered his ERA by nearly 1.50 in 2013, and increased his K/9 from 6.94 to 9.09. The increase in strikeouts is explained by his increase in whiff percentage on all his pitches, most notably the increase from 5.26% to 11.11% for his changeup. His slider continues to be elite, holding opposing hitters to only a .108 AVG off of it in 2013. At age 28, Masterson’s skills and statistics are trending in the right direction and he seems poised for a breakout in 2014.
X-Factor - Danny Salazar
Young pitcher Danny Salazar shined in his 2013 debut, posting 65 strikeouts in 52 innings last season. This is a skill he had shown in throughout the minors, and his 2013 major league appearances showed that this would continue. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph, a very positive sign as he still has room to grow as a pitcher. A cause for concern, however, is his LD%, which was above league average. Regardless, he has immense potential and could be looking at a breakout in 2014 as well.
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox had a poor 2013, losing 22 more games than in 2012, having the third worst record in baseball, and finishing last in the division. They had a strong offseason, however, and will improve upon their abysmal 2012. The White Sox signed Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu to a six year contract in his first year of free agency, and acquired outfielder Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks for Hector Santiago. Abreu dominated in Cuba, setting the single season home run record in 2012, and consistently having an AVG above .340. While the conversion of his skills from the Cuban league to the MLB is yet to be seen, it is safe to expect a solid batting average and elite power numbers. Eaton showed promise in Triple-A in 2012, stealing 38 bases and batting .381, but when called up, his performance was disappointing, although it was a small sample size. He underperformed again in 2013, but his peripheral statistics improved, indicating that he has more potential than he had showed in 2013. His LD% increased significantly, but was still below league average, and his Spd remained elite even though he stole only five bases. His BABIP and AVG did not increase with LD% indicating that they may improve this year. The White Sox bought low on him, and Eaton has shown potential to be a speedy outfielder with a league average AVG.
Outfielder Alejandro De Aza finally earned substantial playing time in the majors in 2012, seven years after entering the minor leagues with the Marlins. De Aza’s minor league track record is highlighted by above average speed and a strong AVG, which has been kept afloat by his high BABIP. In larger sample sizes he has shown a LD% that is better than league average, suggesting that his high BABIP is legitimate. He also had a significant spike in homeruns last season, and his HR/FB deviated minimally from his career average, further justifying his breakout. De Aza’s minor league statistics and his big league performance hint at a further breakout in 2014.
X Factor - Jose Quintana
Quintana took major steps forward in 2013, and is slated as the White Sox’s second starter behind Chris Sale in 2014. He lowered his ERA, which was supported by his peripheral stats, while also increasing his K/9 and his fastball velocity. His pitches also drew more swings outside of the strike zone, and fewer swings inside the strike zone, validating the strikeout increase. The White Sox need him to continue the progress he made in 2014 or the starting rotation will be left with very little depth.
Minnesota Twins
In 2013, the Minnesota Twins had their third consecutive season of 90+ losses. Their pitching staff had the highest Batting Average Against in the league, and they had the fewest number of strikeouts. On offense, they had the second highest strikeout rate in the league. The good news is that they have one of the best farm systems in baseball. According to Baseball America, the Twins have the #1 prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton, and they have the #6, #45 and #52 prospects as well. While these players will not be able to completely turn around the franchise, and none of them are a “sure thing”, they can give the organization something to build around. To improve their pitching staff, the Twins signed Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. Hughes posted a 5.19 ERA in 2013, and has become more susceptible to home runs in recent years. At best, he is a back of the rotation innings eater. Nolasco is coming off his best season ERA since 2008, and improved his K/9 rate as well. He has the potential to be a decent pitcher, but he has not found great success yet.
Catcher Josmil Pinto performed well in his first MLB season, showing power potential and the potential to have a high AVG. In 83 plate appearances in September, he hit four home runs, and batted .342. While this sample size is far too small to gather insight on Pinto’s ability, his 2013 Double-A numbers give an ample sample size. Here, his BB/K ratio suggests that his AVG should fall around .300, according to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. If Pinto were to continue to develop his power, he would give the Twins another strong piece to build around.
X Factor - Ricky Nolasco
The Twins signed pitcher Ricky Nolasco to a four year contract this offseason, essentially ensuring that Nolasco’s best days will be behind him at the end of the contract. While his ERA has rarely fallen below 4.00, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) indicates that he should have had better results. Nolasco’s biggest issue is his strand rate, as it consistently is below league average. When the bases are empty, Nolasco held opposing hitter to a .231 AVG in 2013, but when men were on base, opponents hit .283 off of him. Whether it be a mechanical change when working from the stretch, or a mental issue, Nolasco will have to improve with runners on to be successful.
His batting eye also improved in 2013 compared to 2011. He swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%), and this improved his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K).
After a slow start, he turned it around in the second half, improving his batting average by 38 points. If he can continue these strides into 2014, he will justify his high draft slot, and help the power-desperate Royals. If he slides back toward 2012, Hosmer will look like another failed high draft pick by the Royals.
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians advanced to the postseason for the first time in five years last season, winning 24 more games than they had in 2012. While they had a team ERA around league average, they had the fourth fewest quality starts as a team. With the success they had overall last season, a number this low is intriguing. Furthermore, they had a high winning percentage in one run games (similar to the Yankees), and as mentioned previously, research has shown the randomness has a large effect on one run games. These two factors alone suggest that there may be regression as a team in 2014.
The Indians had a productive offseason, signing outfielder David Murphy, reliever John Axford, and resigning key players like Michael Brantley and Justin Masterson. Murphy had played most of his games with the Rangers and exhibited a strong batting average until 2013, where he posted an anemic .220 AVG, driven by a 106 point drop in his BABIP. His LD% did not fall with it, suggesting that his AVG should rebound in 2014. John Axford had established himself as one of baseball’s better relievers until his performance collapsed in 2012. He struggled to limit home runs and blew 16 saves, the most by any pitcher in the last two years. However, after his mid-season trade to St. Louis in 2013, the pitching coaches realized he had been “tipping” his pitches. He finished the season strong, albeit in a small sample size, but should rebound in 2014.
Justin Masterson continued to make strides of improvement in his sixth MLB season. While he profiles better as a second starter, he is slotted to be the Indians’ ace in 2014. He lowered his ERA by nearly 1.50 in 2013, and increased his K/9 from 6.94 to 9.09. The increase in strikeouts is explained by his increase in whiff percentage on all his pitches, most notably the increase from 5.26% to 11.11% for his changeup. His slider continues to be elite, holding opposing hitters to only a .108 AVG off of it in 2013. At age 28, Masterson’s skills and statistics are trending in the right direction and he seems poised for a breakout in 2014.
X-Factor - Danny Salazar
Young pitcher Danny Salazar shined in his 2013 debut, posting 65 strikeouts in 52 innings last season. This is a skill he had shown in throughout the minors, and his 2013 major league appearances showed that this would continue. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph, a very positive sign as he still has room to grow as a pitcher. A cause for concern, however, is his LD%, which was above league average. Regardless, he has immense potential and could be looking at a breakout in 2014 as well.
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox had a poor 2013, losing 22 more games than in 2012, having the third worst record in baseball, and finishing last in the division. They had a strong offseason, however, and will improve upon their abysmal 2012. The White Sox signed Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu to a six year contract in his first year of free agency, and acquired outfielder Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks for Hector Santiago. Abreu dominated in Cuba, setting the single season home run record in 2012, and consistently having an AVG above .340. While the conversion of his skills from the Cuban league to the MLB is yet to be seen, it is safe to expect a solid batting average and elite power numbers. Eaton showed promise in Triple-A in 2012, stealing 38 bases and batting .381, but when called up, his performance was disappointing, although it was a small sample size. He underperformed again in 2013, but his peripheral statistics improved, indicating that he has more potential than he had showed in 2013. His LD% increased significantly, but was still below league average, and his Spd remained elite even though he stole only five bases. His BABIP and AVG did not increase with LD% indicating that they may improve this year. The White Sox bought low on him, and Eaton has shown potential to be a speedy outfielder with a league average AVG.
Outfielder Alejandro De Aza finally earned substantial playing time in the majors in 2012, seven years after entering the minor leagues with the Marlins. De Aza’s minor league track record is highlighted by above average speed and a strong AVG, which has been kept afloat by his high BABIP. In larger sample sizes he has shown a LD% that is better than league average, suggesting that his high BABIP is legitimate. He also had a significant spike in homeruns last season, and his HR/FB deviated minimally from his career average, further justifying his breakout. De Aza’s minor league statistics and his big league performance hint at a further breakout in 2014.
X Factor - Jose Quintana
Quintana took major steps forward in 2013, and is slated as the White Sox’s second starter behind Chris Sale in 2014. He lowered his ERA, which was supported by his peripheral stats, while also increasing his K/9 and his fastball velocity. His pitches also drew more swings outside of the strike zone, and fewer swings inside the strike zone, validating the strikeout increase. The White Sox need him to continue the progress he made in 2014 or the starting rotation will be left with very little depth.
Minnesota Twins
In 2013, the Minnesota Twins had their third consecutive season of 90+ losses. Their pitching staff had the highest Batting Average Against in the league, and they had the fewest number of strikeouts. On offense, they had the second highest strikeout rate in the league. The good news is that they have one of the best farm systems in baseball. According to Baseball America, the Twins have the #1 prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton, and they have the #6, #45 and #52 prospects as well. While these players will not be able to completely turn around the franchise, and none of them are a “sure thing”, they can give the organization something to build around. To improve their pitching staff, the Twins signed Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. Hughes posted a 5.19 ERA in 2013, and has become more susceptible to home runs in recent years. At best, he is a back of the rotation innings eater. Nolasco is coming off his best season ERA since 2008, and improved his K/9 rate as well. He has the potential to be a decent pitcher, but he has not found great success yet.
Catcher Josmil Pinto performed well in his first MLB season, showing power potential and the potential to have a high AVG. In 83 plate appearances in September, he hit four home runs, and batted .342. While this sample size is far too small to gather insight on Pinto’s ability, his 2013 Double-A numbers give an ample sample size. Here, his BB/K ratio suggests that his AVG should fall around .300, according to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. If Pinto were to continue to develop his power, he would give the Twins another strong piece to build around.
X Factor - Ricky Nolasco
The Twins signed pitcher Ricky Nolasco to a four year contract this offseason, essentially ensuring that Nolasco’s best days will be behind him at the end of the contract. While his ERA has rarely fallen below 4.00, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) indicates that he should have had better results. Nolasco’s biggest issue is his strand rate, as it consistently is below league average. When the bases are empty, Nolasco held opposing hitter to a .231 AVG in 2013, but when men were on base, opponents hit .283 off of him. Whether it be a mechanical change when working from the stretch, or a mental issue, Nolasco will have to improve with runners on to be successful.